I saw this live on CNBC this morning. I flipped on the TV and saw that he was up next. It was definitely worth watching. He accurately predicted the stock market bubble. He accurately predicted the housing bubble.
December 31, 2010
Robert Shiller Analysis Yields 2020 Target for S&P
Using long term analysis, Professor Robert Shiller, macromarkets chief economist at Yale University and the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, told CNBC on Friday that the S&P 500 may reach 1430 by the year 2020.
So let's do some math on his guess.
The S&P 500 closed today at 1257.
In 2020 he thinks it will be 1430.
That's a 14% increase and it will take 10 years to achieve it. That works out to 1.3% per year. Meanwhile, he's assuming 2% inflation in his guess. I guess any real gains must therefore come from the juicy 1.78% dividends.
Someone better alert Jeremy Siegel and the pension fund industry!
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