I have great news to share. You are immortal!
November 17, 2016
Yahoo Finance: RAOUL PAL: History shows there's a 100% chance of a recession for Trump
“I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President,” he wrote in a copy of GMI posted below.
You are probably wondering how this relates to your own mortality. Please allow me to explain.
1. You are reading this.
2. Therefore, you are not dead.
3. If you are not dead now, then you were not dead last year or any previous year.
4. Therefore, you were not dead every single year of your life (not counting the potential for being mistakenly and temporarily declared dead).
5. Since you have never died, sound statistical analysis proves you have a 100% chance of not dying. Welcome to immortality!
Even if there is some tiny flaw in this statistical analysis, there is one thing we can say with even greater than 100% confidence. The longer you go without dying, the more resilient to death you will become!
Further, the only conceivable way you could possibly die would be the occurrence of a 25-sigma black swan event. To the best of my knowledge, no hedge fund manager has ever been burned by one of those though. They all use statistical models we can absolutely count on. That's why we can trust that if there is a 100% chance of a recession within a certain narrow time frame, then it is absolutely guaranteed to occur! It's a sure thing, exactly like your own immortality!
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