tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post2602417744946411690..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: 2012's Anti-Bondmageddon!Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-61263989102728680372012-05-18T16:37:53.965-07:002012-05-18T16:37:53.965-07:00Troy,
But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy r...Troy,<br /><br /><i>But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.</i><br /><br />If not for their growing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient" rel="nofollow">income inequality</a> and ongoing <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/us-china-politics-corruption-idUSBRE84H08420120518" rel="nofollow">corruption</a>, I would not be as bearish.<br /><br /><i>Many Chinese people believe the allegations against Bo reflect widespread problems of officials and their families mixing power and profit - using political privilege to accumulate wealth far beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.</i><br /><br />Those same things contribute to my bearishness here too of course.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-4099402725676922352012-05-18T16:07:02.648-07:002012-05-18T16:07:02.648-07:00Being a good physiocrat, I just like countries tha...Being a good physiocrat, I just like countries <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-trade-surplus-widens-april-044416129--finance.html" rel="nofollow">that can feed themselves</a>.<br /><br />China was just such a tough place in living memory that I don't feel comfortable expounding on its prospects going forward.<br /><br />These people went through hell 1900-1975.<br /><br />A housing bubble fallout is peanuts compared to all that.<br /><br />Demographically, their family planning policy is going to put them in a much better situation compared to India (<a href="http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:CHN:IND:USA:BRA&idim=region:ECA&ifdim=region&tstart=-303670800000&tend=1305702000000&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false&q=population+china" rel="nofollow">google graph</a>).<br /><br />They're coming from such a low place that I don't really see any headwinds in their future.<br /><br />But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-7254023103558422432012-05-18T15:54:08.860-07:002012-05-18T15:54:08.860-07:00Troy,
I think we're pretty much seeing the sa...Troy,<br /><br />I think we're pretty much seeing the same thing.<br /><br />There is one exception though. I am particularly bearish on China (and therefore agree with Jim Chanos).<br /><br />That said, if we agreed on everything then one of us would be redundant. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-47435302392432541342012-05-18T15:40:08.367-07:002012-05-18T15:40:08.367-07:00this newsletter was posted at hcn just now. . .
c...<a href="http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(4zlpe5jrc21lpoq5rbz3ws55))/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1651&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1" rel="nofollow">this newsletter</a> was posted at hcn just now. . .<br /><br />coulda written every word, except I'm not particularly bearish on China I guess.Troynoreply@blogger.com