tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post3781416285602377381..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: "You Can't Lose on Stocks" - Jeremy SiegelStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-74233204225195652422013-08-12T18:42:14.930-07:002013-08-12T18:42:14.930-07:00TJandTheBear,
Gold's made a modest improvemen...TJandTheBear,<br /><br />Gold's made a modest improvement since i did this <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2013/08/gold-bulls-vs-bears.html" rel="nofollow">chart</a>. Good luck! If it holds that channel in the second chart then the train could very well gain some momentum.<br /><br />We're mostly on the same side of the trade. That long-term TIPS I bought recently has done fine too, as has every single TIPS bond I've bought since 2000. Hardly surprising to those who don't expect stellar growth though.<br /><br />Certain professors in ivory towers may have expected a return to normal, but they [Jeremy] shall remain [Siegel] nameless. No point rubbing [mythical 3.5% real yields] it in. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-30618427275296571592013-08-12T17:16:02.496-07:002013-08-12T17:16:02.496-07:00Time to jump back on the PM train, Mark. Jus'...Time to jump back on the PM train, Mark. Jus' sayin'. ;-)TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-86344676260512624022013-08-12T13:55:25.686-07:002013-08-12T13:55:25.686-07:00How about a game of Global Economic Meltdown?
Is ...How about a game of Global Economic Meltdown?<br /><br />Is this a game... or is it real?<br /><br />What's the difference?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086567/quotes" rel="nofollow">WarGames Quotes</a>, well, almost.<br /><br />As for MtG, I knew it could hook me but my semi-OCD saved me. I knew I could never collect every card (well, not without great emotional and financial distress perhaps).<br /><br />I invested because I knew it could hook others. I'll never forget the first time I walked into a game store to see how it was selling. The guy in front of me bought some cards with cash. He then sifted through them. They weren't good enough apparently. He went back and got some more cards. This time he paid with them with a credit card. He then turned to me and said, "Magic plastic."<br /><br />That was definitely a holy @#$% moment for me, in a good way.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-70112965220805217532013-08-12T13:43:05.948-07:002013-08-12T13:43:05.948-07:00heh, if I had a time machine I'd pop back to 1...heh, if I had a time machine I'd pop back to 1982 and "invent" Tetris for the Apple II and C64, and then pop into 1990 and invent MtG!<br /><br />I was in Japan when MtG came out and only bought cards for 6 months, after the initial crush and before the game started getting stale and complicated (it's been refreshed a couple of times since then as the development people learned how to manage a CCG).<br /><br /><br />The elegance of emergent play mechanics of these two titles is awe-inspiring.<br /><br />I look at my cornflower-blue empty XNA window and think, 'OK Troy, what's the next Tetris??'!<br /><br /><br /><br />Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-46077121422796390902013-08-12T10:32:08.877-07:002013-08-12T10:32:08.877-07:00I've been giving this more thought. The zero p...I've been giving this more thought. The zero point is when the retailers are hiring at the pace real sales are growing.<br /><br />It doesn't change the conclusions of this post though. It just changes the timing.<br /><br />Since I'm using semiannual averages and year over year changes, that also changes the timing. The chart's last data point is showing the change from the middle of the first half of 2012 to the middle of the first half of 2013.<br /><br />If the downward trend has continued, we're basically seeing where we were nearly a year ago. In other words, things could be worse oday than the chart shows.<br /><br />It won't be easy to tell if it has continued when the data is released tomorrow, since the monthly data is so noisy.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-90097183273732614872013-08-12T08:32:24.132-07:002013-08-12T08:32:24.132-07:00If I am right that the market is spooked by the re...If I am right that the market is spooked by the retail trade data that will be released tomorrow, then we might expect to see a selloff in the last hour of trading today.<br /><br />Just a thought.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-31119130075300876662013-08-12T08:19:36.910-07:002013-08-12T08:19:36.910-07:00For what it is worth, none of my long-term bearish...For what it is worth, none of my long-term bearishness is based on what the Fed does or does not do.<br /><br />If this economy intends to slow down (for a great many structural reasons), then this economy will slow down.<br /><br />Heaven help us if we slip into a recession during ZIRP. What's the Fed going to do then? Lower interest rates from 0% to 0%?<br /><br />I can think of one thing they could do. They could strike the word "taper" from their future speeches, lol. Sigh.<br /><br />Gallows humor.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com