tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post5838901601480935967..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Real Oil Consumption per CapitaStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-4564905166881600392012-02-27T19:46:01.894-08:002012-02-27T19:46:01.894-08:00I have good news.
To hell in a handbasket
"...I have good news.<br /><br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_hell_in_a_handbasket" rel="nofollow">To hell in a handbasket</a><br /><br /><i>"Going to hell in a handbasket", "going to hell in a handcart", "going to hell in a handbag" and '"sending something to hell in a handbasket" are variations on an American alliterative locution of unclear origin, which describes a situation headed for disaster without effort or in great haste.</i><br /><br />Not much effort! Fantastic! ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-24198949777120502222012-02-27T19:44:18.570-08:002012-02-27T19:44:18.570-08:00Fritz_O,
Why are we in this hen basket and where ...Fritz_O,<br /><br />Why are we in this hen basket and where are we going?Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-59385711619279485342012-02-26T18:14:09.448-08:002012-02-26T18:14:09.448-08:00Troy,
Excellent synopsis of where we are.
We are...Troy,<br /><br />Excellent synopsis of where we are.<br /><br />We <i>are</i> in the hen basket <i>now</i>.Fritz_Onoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-72632795657825232502012-02-25T06:20:48.505-08:002012-02-25T06:20:48.505-08:00Jazzbumpa & Troy,
The sleeper is an insomniac...Jazzbumpa & Troy,<br /><br />The sleeper is an insomniac. Fear of our future prosperity is a mind killer, lol. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-16792917700843017402012-02-25T00:57:32.307-08:002012-02-25T00:57:32.307-08:00Your number can also be reached by knowing that th...Your number can also be reached by knowing that the average household retail consumption is 1000 gal/yr.<br /><br />I don't see the endgame here -- I don't think Kunstler's doomview is necessarily our future, but we do survive and prosper thanks to the oil.<br /><br />Our per-capita healthcare is $8000/yr, we could easily cut that in half to give us more headroom to keep the spice flowing.<br /><br />Then there's land values. $500/mo more leaving the household budget is $500 that can't be spent on rents and mortgages. It's my thesis that rents simply have to fall from here, but I have to allow that basically the rent-takers in this economy are going to have to slug it out among themselves to see who has the ultimate pricing power.<br /><br />In the larger macro picture, Gov't Education is an $8000 per household expense, too -- more if we have to pay to get their <a href="http://calpensions.com/2012/02/07/calstrs-funding-gap-widens-so-does-solution/" rel="nofollow">pensions funded over 70%</a> -- per that the CA teachers need ~$500 per household to close the funding gap, and that's assuming 7.5% returns going forward, LOL.<br /><br />There's the larger general government pension crisis coming, and the even larger social security shortfall coming.<br /><br />Mr Earth sure picked a cruddy time to go all peak oil on us.<br /><br />Oh, are defense cuts in the cards? There's another $8000 per household expense there.<br /><br />Taxes basically need to be doubled from here. That's not inflationary, not that this nation has the collecive political maturity to honestly face up to this reality.<br /><br />There's a lot to be learned how Japan drove into its own mess. Corruption and the power of government to pull the wool over people and defend its prerogatives for a very long time.<br /><br />I've mentioned this before here I think, but 2026 is going to be an interesting year. 250th centennial thing, and we'll have the full baby boom on SSA if not <a href="http://www.dispatch.com/content/graphics/2011/11/14/medicare-art0-gg7erjnc-11114gfx-medicare-enrollment-cost-eps.jpg" rel="nofollow">Medicare</a> by then. That's another $400B, $3000+/household that needs to be funded.<br /><br />What a mess everything is. It doesn't have to be this way, but we are a corrupt and compromised society.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-37733455528687070462012-02-24T02:38:36.249-08:002012-02-24T02:38:36.249-08:00I'll miss the oil, but a person needs new expe...I'll miss the oil, but a person needs new experiences. They jar something deep inside, allowing him to grow. Without change something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087182/quotes?qt=qt0328193" rel="nofollow">The sleeper must awaken</a>.Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-31981597134656574842012-02-23T22:50:34.107-08:002012-02-23T22:50:34.107-08:00The price of WTI oil was $97 in November (the last...The price of WTI oil was $97 in November (the last data point on the chart). It's now $107.<br /><br />At about $115 we'd be back on the red trend line more than likely (assuming there wasn't too much more demand destruction).<br /><br />This is not a prediction where oil prices are headed next. My opinion in <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2009/11/im-deflationary.html" rel="nofollow">2009</a> was that oil could hit $100 but that it wouldn't stay there if it did. I'm not sure what I think now. Bernanke's given the green light for oil speculation <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-infected-musical-tribute.html" rel="nofollow">until late 2014</a>. That doesn't mean it isn't more than priced in though.<br /><br />In any event, I don't think our economy can prosper with $100 oil (much less China's). Time will tell.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com