tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post6066643829818209135..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: China's Ongoing Real Estate BubbleStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-38006707200397391002011-08-19T15:40:52.009-07:002011-08-19T15:40:52.009-07:00Troy,
We're going to be plugged into the coll...Troy,<br /><br />We're going to be plugged into the collective. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-84929581179461853642011-08-19T15:07:20.300-07:002011-08-19T15:07:20.300-07:00The computer games of the future are going to be a...The computer games of the future are going to be anti-productivity miracles.<br /><br />Nah, computer games are going to be peoples' lives.<br /><br />Excellent substitute good for just about anything -- WOW raids are exactly like bowling leagues now.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-33692837598732148072011-08-19T05:09:57.652-07:002011-08-19T05:09:57.652-07:00The computer games of the future are going to be a...The computer games of the future are going to be anti-productivity miracles.<br /><br />That's assuming my back yard is any indicator. For some strange reason, the lawn has suffered since the Playstation 3 appeared. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-34133323071825401442011-08-18T23:46:45.633-07:002011-08-18T23:46:45.633-07:00heh, I was too. Well, maybe not lead.
The power o...heh, I was too. Well, maybe not lead.<br /><br />The power of PCs today just blows my mind. <br /><br />I'd love to figure out how to productize them into arcade games again.<br /><br />http://www.raceroom.net/<br /><br />opened up near me now but they kinda suck. Right idea but $5 for 10-15 minutes ain't gonna work.<br /><br />As for testing complex models, back testing!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-49472097122864777982011-08-18T01:24:17.798-07:002011-08-18T01:24:17.798-07:00Troy,
I take it that you're a software/sim gu...Troy,<br /><br /><i>I take it that you're a software/sim guy.</i><br /><br />I was a lead software engineer in a computer game company. Good call!<br /><br /><i>Modelling what happens to a dollar in an economy is interesting.</i><br /><br />I wish I could say I saw our demise coming by creating a complex computer simulation, but as it turns out it was mostly just due to the crazy mortgage offers I was getting in my old-school mailbox (in 2004). Go figure.<br /><br />The problem with complex models is that all it takes is one misplaced/missing assumption to ruin it all. I think more than a few banks found that out the hard way. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-21016004231667860252011-08-17T22:31:09.888-07:002011-08-17T22:31:09.888-07:00more material goods will boost their service secto...more material goods will boost their service sector. . .<br /><br />I take it that you're a software/sim guy. Modelling what happens to a dollar in an economy is interesting.<br /><br />In a pure service economy with no depletion of resources, it is possible for one dollar to ping around the local economy indefinitely.<br /><br />I'd love to model this, now that I can put 20GB+ in a box . . .Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-76538803394736038852011-08-17T19:04:34.266-07:002011-08-17T19:04:34.266-07:00Troy,
A Brief History of Property Tax
Property t...Troy,<br /><br /><a href="http://www.amanj.org/files/Carlson.pdf" rel="nofollow">A Brief History of Property Tax</a><br /><br /><i>Property taxes were used in Egypt, Babylon, Persia, and China and throughout the ancient world.</i><br /><br />I would not bet on China not having property taxes again. It's just a matter of time.<br /><br /><b>January 28, 2011</b><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/china-approves-property-tax-trials-in-shanghai-chongqing-to-curb-prices.html" rel="nofollow">China Approves Property Tax Trials to Curb Prices</a><br /><br /><i>China approved property tax trials on some homes in Shanghai and Chongqing, adding to measures announced earlier this week in its campaign to curb real-estate speculation and asset bubbles.</i><br /><br />Robots will make a few Chinese very rich. It takes many people to maintain a real estate bubble though.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-42045708818149138972011-08-17T18:52:08.051-07:002011-08-17T18:52:08.051-07:00beijing doesn't have a property tax, LOL.
how...beijing doesn't have a property tax, LOL.<br /><br />how much would WA real estate rise without the property tax?<br /><br />as for the robots, robots will make beijingers even richer.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-48899006695136213512011-08-17T16:41:53.505-07:002011-08-17T16:41:53.505-07:00I would also point out that Chinese real estate in...I would also point out that Chinese real estate in Bejiing has already priced me out and I have far more resources at my disposal than the typical Chinese factory worker.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/real-estate/china-real-estate-home-prices-in-beijing-dropped-by-10.html" rel="nofollow">China Real Estate: Home Prices In Beijing Dropped By 10%?</a><br /><br /><i>According to Homelink, primary market prices dropped from RMB24,945 per square meter to RMB22,512 per square meter...</i><br /><br />My Seattle area home is roughly 265 square meters. If it was transported to Bejiing it would have been worth one million dollars. I would have sold it and moved back.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-36766200601537549542011-08-17T16:31:49.361-07:002011-08-17T16:31:49.361-07:00Troy,
I'm not at all convinced that Chinese w...Troy,<br /><br />I'm not at all convinced that Chinese wages will double or triple in real terms from here, especially if one factors in the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/us-foxconn-robots-idUSTRE77016B20110801" rel="nofollow">rise of the machines</a>.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-16190683363881460972011-08-17T16:25:42.670-07:002011-08-17T16:25:42.670-07:00What I see with China is a wage base that's go...What I see with China is a wage base that's going double or triple in real terms and who knows in nominal terms.<br /><br />I'm sure real estate is plenty expensive there now, but so were $35,000 houses here in CA back in the day.<br /><br />1.3 billion people in such a small country is just insane.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-56439545850760869802011-08-17T15:22:50.074-07:002011-08-17T15:22:50.074-07:00As a side note, those who taught China the benefit...As a side note, those who taught China the benefits of capitalism probably should have included a FAQ section on market <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1" rel="nofollow">risk management</a>.<br /><br /><i>Given the calamity that has since occurred, there has been a great deal of talk, even in quant circles, that this widespread institutional reliance on VaR was a terrible mistake. At the very least, the risks that VaR measured did not include the biggest risk of all: the possibility of a financial meltdown. “Risk modeling didn’t help as much as it should have,” says Aaron Brown, a former risk manager at Morgan Stanley who now works at AQR, a big quant-oriented hedge fund. A risk consultant named Marc Groz says, “VaR is a very limited tool.” David Einhorn, who founded Greenlight Capital, a prominent hedge fund, wrote not long ago that VaR was “relatively useless as a risk-management tool and potentially catastrophic when its use creates a false sense of security among senior managers and watchdogs. This is like an air bag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best-selling author of “The Black Swan,” has crusaded against VaR for more than a decade. He calls it, flatly, “a fraud.”</i>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com