tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post6790606617814682051..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Long-Term Restaurant Sales PredictionStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-16821483102210419062011-09-14T17:16:23.792-07:002011-09-14T17:16:23.792-07:00Anonymous,
The trend line ignores all data after ...Anonymous,<br /><br />The trend line ignores all data after 2007. The trend would therefore be identical to what it would be if I had done the chart in December 2007 and extrapolated it forward to today.<br /><br />If I would have included all the data then the trend line would have been pulled up to the $105 level on the left side of the chart and down to the $135 level on the right side of the chart.<br /><br />I chose not to do that because it is obvious in the data that the trend broke when we entered the recession in December 2007.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-84143311841305641502011-09-14T17:04:46.441-07:002011-09-14T17:04:46.441-07:00"...created the trend line using Excel's ...<i>"...created the trend line using Excel's [exponential] "growth" function..."</i><br /><br />That's what I figured. I wonder, does the exp. func. adjust downward as the data does in the same way that Excel's linear line would?<br /><br />What I mean to say is, if you ended your source data at Dec. 2007 would the line move slightly upwards and, subsequently, the $145 number would in fact be higher if not accounting for the data since 2007 that no one in the media wants to admit to?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-61236482961949741052011-09-14T16:38:12.368-07:002011-09-14T16:38:12.368-07:00Anonymous,
The simple answer is that the software...Anonymous,<br /><br />The simple answer is that the software did it.<br /><br />I created the trend line using Excel's [exponential] "growth" function based on the data from January 1996 to December 2007. That function also allowed me to extrapolate the trend for periods before 1996 and after 2007.<br /><br />Put another way, if the trend that was in place from 1996 to 2007 still applied then we'd be seeing $145 per month restaurant sales per capita right now. We're clearly not. Trend broken.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-6039597317683805152011-09-14T16:33:05.154-07:002011-09-14T16:33:05.154-07:00Troy,
Keep in mind that the first chart is per Ca...Troy,<br /><br />Keep in mind that the first chart is per Capita and the 2nd chart is not.<br /><br />That said, 2003 wasn't all that long ago. I do think it is possible.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-87948787351133409992011-09-14T16:02:07.710-07:002011-09-14T16:02:07.710-07:00Did you pencil in the exponential trend line from ...Did you pencil in the exponential trend line from 2007 onward or did the software do it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-42964521629518189172011-09-14T12:51:40.869-07:002011-09-14T12:51:40.869-07:00wow, falling back to the 2003 level would be a mil...wow, falling back to the 2003 level would be a million jobs gone.Troynoreply@blogger.com