tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post7141749501569739493..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Retail Trade Employment GrowthStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-10500189764390027412011-08-22T21:49:47.147-07:002011-08-22T21:49:47.147-07:00fried,
They express my frustratioin with optimism...fried,<br /><br />They express my frustratioin with optimism from the BLS re retail employment too. No doubt about it.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-23102473989075564102011-08-22T21:00:02.215-07:002011-08-22T21:00:02.215-07:00Mark,
they were rhetorical, but they express my fr...Mark,<br />they were rhetorical, but they express my frustration with optimism from the BLS re retail employment.<br />I live on the West Side of Manhattan, which is nominally holding up compared to the rest of the country, and yet Broadway in the West 80s-is dotted with empty retail. At big box stores, self-checkout continues to<br />eliminate jobs. And in NYC, with fewer car owners than anywhere, online retail for everything, including groceries, is a way of life. And avoiding sales taxes via internet buying...enough said.friednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-21451077234665518832011-08-22T14:54:04.430-07:002011-08-22T14:54:04.430-07:00Troy,
Interesting chart.
Here's a hard link ...Troy,<br /><br />Interesting chart.<br /><br />Here's a hard <a href="http://i.imgur.com/s0CHX.png" rel="nofollow">link</a> to it.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-25255203770852743482011-08-22T14:51:18.764-07:002011-08-22T14:51:18.764-07:00Picosec,
There are some retail categories that ar...Picosec,<br /><br /><i>There are some retail categories that aren't likely to "ever" be subject to internet sales (most food items) but there is still a long way to grow.</i><br /><br />The employee efficient Costco and Sam's Club will continue to put a dent in food sale employees and will more than likely continue to grow faster than <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=KR&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=cost" rel="nofollow">Kroger</a>.<br /><br />For what it is worth, <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/05/amazon-costco-and-sears.html#uds-search-results" rel="nofollow">Costco</a> has nearly the same large revenue per employee that Amazon.com has.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-49696242544245417852011-08-22T14:43:37.693-07:002011-08-22T14:43:37.693-07:00fried,
I'm going to guess that your questions...fried,<br /><br />I'm going to guess that your questions are rhetorical, but there's a part of me that really wants to answer them! ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-71674676075427526872011-08-22T11:33:58.231-07:002011-08-22T11:33:58.231-07:00I made a chart of the twin stimulus of the past de...I made a chart of the twin stimulus of the past decade:<br /><br />http://i.imgur.com/s0CHX.png<br /><br />yellow was consumer debt, red was tax cuts, green is the increase in deficit spending post-2009.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-18694789257939591312011-08-22T10:11:39.925-07:002011-08-22T10:11:39.925-07:00Just to calibrate the current impact of the intern...Just to calibrate the current impact of the internet on retail sales, in 2009 about 4% of all retail sales were via the internet. As you noted, this has been growing exponentially. <br /><br />http://www.census.gov/econ/estats/2009/2009reportfinal.pdf<br /><br />There are some retail categories that aren't likely to "ever" be subject to internet sales (most food items) but there is still a long way to grow.<br /><br />I'd actually expect a backlash/reversion at some point as the public recognizes what they're losing when local retailers start disappearing.Picosechttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07753584723219717273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-75623750641939847372011-08-22T09:48:43.447-07:002011-08-22T09:48:43.447-07:00Does anyone from the BLS live in America? Have the...Does anyone from the BLS live in America? Have they not been in a supermarket or big box with self check-out? Tried to find retail help and ended up asking other customers until somebody fessed up that they actually worked there?<br />Scanned aisle after aisle until they found a delivery person who might know something? Don't know anyone who shops online to avoid local sales taxes? Notice the empty retail in strip malls?<br />Reminds me of old George Bush shocked by supermarket scanners 20 years ago. Clueless.friednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-11042506617526229532011-08-22T03:41:19.902-07:002011-08-22T03:41:19.902-07:00Thanks Mark - fascinating chart as usual.Thanks Mark - fascinating chart as usual.Audreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-77812892091114276202011-08-21T23:36:39.798-07:002011-08-21T23:36:39.798-07:00Troy,
I don't think you can compare now to an...Troy,<br /><br /><i>I don't think you can compare now to any time in the past.</i><br /><br />Party pooper!<br /><br />I should probably combine all the long-term bearish charts into a complex economic doomsday model, lol. Sigh.<br /><br />I am VERY impressed by your doomstead.<br /><br />Your doomstead inspired me to go looking for my own. <a href="http://www.boattrader.com/listing/1988-Waterway-Pontoon-Houseboat-97240552" rel="nofollow">Here</a> it is. So what's the attraction? I could move my doomstead to YOUR doomstead. Mwuhahaha! ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-64252249043340094632011-08-21T23:18:53.236-07:002011-08-21T23:18:53.236-07:00I don't think you can compare now to any time ...I don't think you can compare now to any time in the past.<br /><br />The CMDEBT party paid for a lot of stuff . . . <br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1JJ" rel="nofollow">Graph: Household Sector: Liabilites: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)/Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP)</a><br /><br /><br />nb: I found my <a href="http://www.redfin.com/WA/Friday-Harbor/2201-Yacht-Haven-Rd-98250/home/16745786" rel="nofollow">doomstead! </a><br /><br />I didn't even know there were islands there. The history of these islands is kinda interesting -- they were awarded to the US by the Kaiser, actually.<br /><br />lol on the spamstopper: sesselli -- I'd be pretty sessile in the San Juans!Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-7062496947808958672011-08-21T22:01:08.872-07:002011-08-21T22:01:08.872-07:00One more thought.
We were below the blue trend li...One more thought.<br /><br />We were below the blue trend line during both of the last 2 expansions and were below the red trend line in the last contraction.<br /><br />This would definitely support your claim.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-26028887332227294172011-08-21T21:58:20.316-07:002011-08-21T21:58:20.316-07:00Picosec,
Actually, it has been going on a bit lon...Picosec,<br /><br />Actually, it has been going on a bit longer.<br /><br />Check out the chart of monthly nonstore retail sales per capita as seen in <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/10/retail-trade-employment.html" rel="nofollow">this</a> post.<br /><br />That said, since it is an exponentially increasing trend your point is well taken. If the level of carnage is increasing exponentially then one would expect the trend lines in my chart to buckle.<br /><br />It wouldn't require buckling though. Simply dipping below 0% growth and staying there would be sufficient. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-66705683990696316522011-08-21T21:52:20.324-07:002011-08-21T21:52:20.324-07:00Perhaps it's short-sighted, but internet sales...Perhaps it's short-sighted, but internet sales have only been a factor for the last few years so I'd expect a downturn from these trend lines.Picosechttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07753584723219717273noreply@blogger.com