tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post7767689307735384334..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Gasoline Price Crisis AvertedStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-11887382769489916992011-02-26T15:09:30.847-08:002011-02-26T15:09:30.847-08:00dearieme,
Nice. I suspect that the tree will be s...dearieme,<br /><br />Nice. I suspect that the tree will be shaken until all the retail investors fall out. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-9471103198215427192011-02-26T06:42:59.801-08:002011-02-26T06:42:59.801-08:00Who remembers ice cream made of cow's milk?
W...<i>Who remembers ice cream made of cow's milk?</i><br /><br />Who remembers getting Rick-rolled with fond nostalgia!<br /><br />That transition might be inflationary, in some sense.<br /><br />Nixon started my the road towards anti-republicanism. Reagan-Bush-Bush the Lesser . . . then the current crop of Rethug Governors have ended forever any pro-repugnicant tendencies I might have had.<br /><br />The Koch suckers want to take us back to feudalism.<br /><br />If we allow it to happen.<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-26091671650946134592011-02-26T03:09:50.262-08:002011-02-26T03:09:50.262-08:00I thought you might enjoy John Authers in this mor...I thought you might enjoy John Authers in this morning's FT:<br />"So this inflation scare has not ended the deflation versus inflation debate. Rather, we may suffer a toxic combination of both."deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-48829246606537227962011-02-25T23:18:25.994-08:002011-02-25T23:18:25.994-08:00GYSC,
nasty trick...
Oh sure! Shoot the messenge...GYSC,<br /><br /><i>nasty trick...</i><br /><br />Oh sure! Shoot the messenger! ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-50692055993252653342011-02-25T18:25:12.615-08:002011-02-25T18:25:12.615-08:00mark,
nasty trick with the ice cream link.......In...mark,<br />nasty trick with the ice cream link.......In Roman times this was actually like caviar. When in Rome, stay in Rome.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-78976207139147495222011-02-25T17:44:57.748-08:002011-02-25T17:44:57.748-08:00remy,
If the "experts" are right about ...remy,<br /><br />If the "experts" are right about $5 gasoline in the USA, then isn't $5 a nice round psychologically damaging number (much like Nasdaq 5,000)?<br /><br />If "experts" are wrong about $5 gasoline in the USA, then perhaps the recession came a bit early?<br /><br />I just don't see any other way for the commodity story to play out. Investors are still embracing it.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-85500747299266119532011-02-25T17:31:02.008-08:002011-02-25T17:31:02.008-08:00WOW Stag,
Fantastic chart!!!
It would be interest...WOW Stag,<br /><br />Fantastic chart!!!<br />It would be interesting to see if gas stays high, goes higher or drops before causing another recession...<br /><br />thanks remyremynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-41120997400905964502011-02-25T17:07:41.327-08:002011-02-25T17:07:41.327-08:00Today's Hyperinflation Thoughts
Just paid $12...<b>Today's Hyperinflation Thoughts</b><br /><br />Just paid $12.99 for an 8 gigabyte USB drive. In 1982 it cost me $49.99 for a 16 kilobyte memory card for my TRS-80. That's 500,000 times more memory at 1/4th the price.<br /><br />As a former software engineer, it amazes me just how far we've come.<br /><br />On the way home, I was offered 0% financing for 5 years at a local Toyota dealer. Doesn't sound all that hyperinflationary to me.<br /><br />I did have to pay a kidney to fill my gas tank though. That's something I guess.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-59662158084089433612011-02-25T16:58:21.805-08:002011-02-25T16:58:21.805-08:00Jazzbumpa,
From your post:
The disturbing thing ...Jazzbumpa,<br /><br />From your post:<br /><br /><i>The disturbing thing is the trend line, shown in green on the chart - relentlesly down, down, down for over 40 years, as each recovery is more anemic than the last.</i><br /><br />It's "trickle down" economics! ;)<br /><br />For the record, I am neither a republican nor a democrat. I'm most closely tied to the banana republican party long-term though. I think.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-11955589123774628052011-02-25T16:54:33.232-08:002011-02-25T16:54:33.232-08:00GYSC,
Speaking of twin peaks...
Who remembers ic...GYSC,<br /><br />Speaking of twin peaks...<br /><br />Who remembers <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/02/25/134056923/breast-milk-ice-cream-a-hit-at-london-store" rel="nofollow">ice cream</a> made of cow's milk? I heard this on the radio today as I was driving home. Yes, it's true I actually left the house again! ;)<br /><br />After listening to the radio I wish I hadn't though. Good grief!Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-19361496771797308172011-02-25T14:33:37.248-08:002011-02-25T14:33:37.248-08:00When I look at graphs with quasi-cyclical behavior...When I look at graphs with quasi-cyclical behavior, I look for trend-lines by connecting peaks or troughs. Nothing pops out from the gasoline trace. But employment - oh my.<br /><br />It might just be business cycle stuff. Here's <a href="http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2010/12/us-economy-is-dying-pt-2.html" rel="nofollow">capacity utilization. </a>. <br /><br />I don't stumble onto anything that temps optimism.<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-82703022359920644172011-02-25T13:37:08.749-08:002011-02-25T13:37:08.749-08:00Who remembers the show 'Twin Peaks' and no...Who remembers the show 'Twin Peaks' and not the adult version.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-49757734808975896232011-02-25T13:11:46.876-08:002011-02-25T13:11:46.876-08:00Peak TIPS yields!
The 30-Year TIPS is on FIRE!
B...Peak TIPS yields!<br /><br />The 30-Year TIPS is on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy" rel="nofollow">FIRE</a>!<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/" rel="nofollow">Bloomberg: Bond Rates</a><br /><br />2.19% -> 1.94%<br /><br />I'm up about 5% and haven't even paid for them yet.<br /><br />I had a pretty good feeling about it when I saw that I represented a whopping <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/02/30-year-tips-auction-results.html" rel="nofollow">1/584th</a> of retail investors though. Still can't get over that. I've never been more contrarian.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-21709003228141346632011-02-25T05:44:49.373-08:002011-02-25T05:44:49.373-08:00Mark,
Really great charts!
There are two big for...Mark,<br /><br />Really great charts!<br /><br />There are two big forces at work on gas prices and a smaller one that might become bigger.<br /><br />1. QE from the Fed<br />2. Peak cheap oil cycle (limited cheap supply as fields deplete)<br /><br />And the small one:<br />3. Libya supply reduction which may be totally cut off, and the threat of unrest spreading to larger producers.<br /><br />Of course, financial speculators add volatility to the mix. Margin requirements have been raised twice on oil recently to reduce that effect.Mr Slipperynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-28834673387168925452011-02-24T23:20:04.266-08:002011-02-24T23:20:04.266-08:00By the way, just telling people that gasoline may ...By the way, just telling people that gasoline may soar to $5 per gallon soon is a price shock even if gasoline does not go to $5.<br /><br />If enough people believe it then I would expect the price to actually go down since the economy would derail.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com