tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post946021097760696820..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Epic Exponential Trend Failure of the DayStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-43523019031891945932012-10-10T15:56:20.186-07:002012-10-10T15:56:20.186-07:00Troy,
Plus we've loaded them up with a trilli...Troy,<br /><br /><i>Plus we've loaded them up with a trillion of student loan debt now.</i><br /><br />I decided to chart those 16 to 54 to reduce the effect of extra people in college. It sure didn't reduce it much though.<br /><br />In my opinion, college has become the new high school. In theory, that removes a good 4 years of total pay *and*, as you say, racks up a ton of extra debt.<br /><br />We are going to have some very educated and very broke retail sales people (assuming we'll still have retail sales jobs in an automated world). Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-41935358558845154792012-10-10T15:52:05.196-07:002012-10-10T15:52:05.196-07:00Mr Slippery,
Do you know if there has ever been a...Mr Slippery,<br /><br /><i>Do you know if there has ever been a period like 1997-2012 where the prime work force stagnated so long?</i><br /><br />In the US? I can't say for sure, but I kind of doubt it. Sigh.<br /><br />That won't stop Jeremy Siegel from extrapolating 200+ years of American history well into the distant future and calling it a great prediction though, lol. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-73237385543005240912012-10-10T15:48:44.531-07:002012-10-10T15:48:44.531-07:00mab,
As for the next president, it makes no diffe...mab,<br /><br /><i>As for the next president, it makes no difference if it's Obama or Romney. We have a one party system that's dishonestly presented as a two party system. What a joke.</i><br /><br />I hear that. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-40376073676274701232012-10-10T11:24:31.373-07:002012-10-10T11:24:31.373-07:00the past was different since we had untapped natur...the past was different since we had untapped natural wealth left to develop, productize, and monetize, ~1848 - ~1930.<br /><br />After the war we were able to direct this development expansion outwards, economically colonizing the third world.<br /><br />But the employment curve was flat 1948-1968, rose 1964-1990, and has been flat since 1990.<br /><br />Just looking at 16-24 cohort:<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bFQ" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bFQ</a><br /><br />gives an idea of the demographic picture -- employment more than doubled between 1960 and 1980!<br /><br />I think the 1970s wage-price inflation process had a lot to do with that.<br /><br />As I've said before, I still don't have a good "thesis" about the 1990's "full-employment" thing.<br /><br />Dirt-cheap gasoline sure helped. The savings we got from trading with cheap-labor China also helped, even at the cost of the rising accumulate trade deficit.<br /><br />MacOS 7, Windows 95, internet, dotcom jazz, sure.<br /><br />hmm:<br /><br /><a href="http://i.imgur.com/IOrWp.png" rel="nofollow">http://i.imgur.com/IOrWp.png</a> is one of my ghetto charts comparing age 16-24 population (green) with the 16-24 FRED data (red).<br /><br />This doesn't count immigrants, only recorded US births aged into the 16-24 range.<br /><br />We can see the boomers flood into the work-force 1964-1980, and we see the echo boomers -- Gen Y -- start to appear in 1998, only to get clobbered by the tech recession, fail to get jobs in the bubble time, and now get shafted in the recession.<br /><br />Plus we've loaded them up with a trillion of student loan debt now.<br /><br />I got in early enough to catch the last of the boomer regime of free higher ed -- UC was $1300 my first year and still only $1500 my fourth year -- and that included health insurance, LOL.<br /><br />Fees this year are $14,000.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-27589195428129950122012-10-10T10:39:13.071-07:002012-10-10T10:39:13.071-07:00Do you know if there has ever been a period like 1...Do you know if there has ever been a period like 1997-2012 where the prime work force stagnated so long?<br /><br />I'm sure there are examples in other countries. Maybe the great depression or right after the civil war. It is ugly out here in the field.Mr Slipperynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-18668505073220723502012-10-10T10:02:29.568-07:002012-10-10T10:02:29.568-07:00Mark,
The Fed unfailed Wall Street - Mission Acco...Mark,<br /><br />The Fed unfailed Wall Street - Mission Accomplished. <br /><br />As for the next president, it makes no difference if it's Obama or Romney. We have a one party system that's dishonestly presented as a two party system. What a joke. <br /><br />Heck, at least China is honest about their one party system.mabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-11414091877684803132012-10-10T05:00:31.112-07:002012-10-10T05:00:31.112-07:00For those keeping track at home, this chart shows ...For those keeping track at home, this chart shows 15 years of nothing.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com