tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post97596604281073202..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: The 5-Year TIPS FloorStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-60522539400170765622012-10-05T14:57:22.020-07:002012-10-05T14:57:22.020-07:00yeah, all the otherwise healthy n euro states have...yeah, all the otherwise healthy n euro states have massive housing bubbles -- Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Holland.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/leslie-cuadra/2011/08/31/list-of-worlds-largest-creditor-and-debtor-nations" rel="nofollow">This table</a> tells me who's doing things right and who's not.<br /><br />Sweden is $100B in the hole, $11,000 per capita.<br /> <br />The US is only $8000 per capita in the debt hole, but the Swedes can still read articles about <a href="http://www.brecorder.com/world/global-business-a-economy/81850-swedish-trade-surplus-dips-in-august-.html" rel="nofollow">their trade surplus</a> in the present tense, while ours is beginning to leave living memory.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-34910134620109060602012-10-05T13:28:06.157-07:002012-10-05T13:28:06.157-07:00Troy,
We're really a nation of bloomin' i...Troy,<br /><br /><i>We're really a nation of bloomin' idiots. Maybe Sweden will take me.</i><br /><br />Have no fear. We fully intend to infect Sweden with our idiocy and level the playing field, lol. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-68319340741723168862012-10-04T21:12:12.004-07:002012-10-04T21:12:12.004-07:00Not related, but it occurred to me today that the ...Not related, but it occurred to me today that the 1990s tax regime could pay for a $300B/yr military but not the $800B/yr one we have now.<br /><br />Romney's 20% tax rejigger will switch ~$500B/yr around, so it follows we need a 20% tax rise from here to just cover the additional defense expense we are bearing.<br /><br />I made a graph:<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bpf" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bpf</a><br /><br />Blue line is Medicare+Medicaid / wages and shows we need a 14% tax rate to just pay that current expense.<br /><br />Oh, the baby boom is aged 50-66 now and Gen Y, another 80 million people, are entering their prime parenting years too now. JFG*<br /><br />Anyhoo, medicare tax is 3%. We're a bit off there:<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bpg" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bpg</a> shows we need to triple the medicare tax now to 9% of wages to just bring the program back to break-even.<br /><br />Back to the first graph, green is DOD. 12% income tax for that alone. One hour out of each 8hr day for that alone.<br /><br />Red was Social Security. Since the Greenspan Deal, we've been running "surpluses" on this account, but thanks to teh recession and ZIRP those days are over. Plus 10% of the population earns tons of money over the FICA cap, so the true FICA rate to bring SSA back into balance is probably 20%.<br /><br />Yet we're still wasting our time on PPACA's hit on Medicare Part C and Big Bird.<br /><br />We're really a nation of bloomin' idiots. Maybe Sweden will take me.Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-86858236136732631242012-10-04T15:18:05.390-07:002012-10-04T15:18:05.390-07:00TD Ameritrade: Pricing
Bonds Price
Treasuries at...<a href="https://www.tdameritrade.com/pricing.html" rel="nofollow">TD Ameritrade: Pricing</a><br /><br /><i>Bonds Price<br />Treasuries at auction $25 flat fee<br />All other bonds and CMOs on a net yield basis</i><br /><br />It's $25 to transparently participate in a free* government auction. Otherwise, it's bend over and accept whatever they give you, lol. Sigh.<br /><br />* It's 100% free if you participate directly in a government auction and avoid the brokerage firm entirely.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-40042719379846127032012-10-04T15:06:11.587-07:002012-10-04T15:06:11.587-07:00As a side note, I would sell all of my TIPS with a...As a side note, I would sell all of my TIPS with a maturity less than 5 years right now if it wasn't for two small details.<br /><br />1. My bonds are kept with the government. I trust the government more than I do brokerage firms. In order to sell them, I'd have to transfer them.<br /><br />2. Like most brokerage firms, TD Ameritrade's "transparent pricing" does not apply to bond trading. I therefore have no idea what it would actually cost me to sell my bonds. I'm not about to feed their coffers with hidden fees. Call me stubborn.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com