tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85152471151321341442024-02-19T14:31:17.249-08:00Illusion of ProsperityI live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger4706125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-57798660528177581302024-01-18T09:02:00.000-08:002024-01-18T09:02:38.718-08:00100% Trust in Financial InstitutionsThese 5-star reviews for a major online mobile banking app can't be wrong!<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-5jpo-6ldfDkK15DwgV61-COj5SvcJlBGl4QI0xKg7iHRmMn1si7EHIsokGf3sCPTI5EMLn1jQ8AqxE-JS-8OQxmr8C0hAzKIKl-ABTyVQ5mEwbUU0folvBFqZNIqwex_xFHnZblw6QDDax9wQeJrJKn7eZU3QBbVnbPJ72gnnIGSNLPN-PXDv-8PbyU/s2436/IMG_1028.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="2436" data-original-width="1125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-5jpo-6ldfDkK15DwgV61-COj5SvcJlBGl4QI0xKg7iHRmMn1si7EHIsokGf3sCPTI5EMLn1jQ8AqxE-JS-8OQxmr8C0hAzKIKl-ABTyVQ5mEwbUU0folvBFqZNIqwex_xFHnZblw6QDDax9wQeJrJKn7eZU3QBbVnbPJ72gnnIGSNLPN-PXDv-8PbyU/s320/IMG_1028.png"/></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-BkmABSXkRL-W1MiWxNWLq79RwniyQ__XKkfKdw1xWD00pWB3CxUv9mIcQ0osFqbS2VOWgK0l8CHhseXWucEl1BkP6hPAVdWrJKi60FjyW05Pjv2umzKKqkDZLMjDxBOG4RsJPflmEW2A2CfG7e7Y7kFg3SWOff5TH-2xvuHO2eHvLvd4D7ulXFfRXw/s2436/IMG_1029.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="2436" data-original-width="1125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-BkmABSXkRL-W1MiWxNWLq79RwniyQ__XKkfKdw1xWD00pWB3CxUv9mIcQ0osFqbS2VOWgK0l8CHhseXWucEl1BkP6hPAVdWrJKi60FjyW05Pjv2umzKKqkDZLMjDxBOG4RsJPflmEW2A2CfG7e7Y7kFg3SWOff5TH-2xvuHO2eHvLvd4D7ulXFfRXw/s320/IMG_1029.png"/></a></div>
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I'd say which Apple app it is, but since all 3 of the mobile online banking apps I use have similarly stellar reviews, it seems fairly obvious that we can trust them all. Yes, sir. The days of unethical behavior, deceiving practices, and outright fraud are all clearly behind us!<br />
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The illusion of prosperity is dead! Long live the illusion of prosperity!!Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-41856824440099539202023-08-04T18:10:00.001-07:002023-08-04T18:10:44.812-07:00Stay HydratedThe choices are:<br />
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1. Drink plenty of water.<br />
2. Take an ambulance to the emergency room and learn first hand how painful a kidney stone can be.<br />
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I chose poorly. May you learn from my mistake.<br />
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The good news is that the 4.5mm kidney stone that was causing me so much pain passed within 10 hours of the first symptoms, the pain medication given in the ER was quite effective, and the stone was smooth so once it exited my kidney, the pain was gone. No jagged spikes, thankfully. Not everyone is so fortunate.<br />
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The bad news is that the other kidney has 3 similar ticking time bombs and one of them is 6mm. Yikes!<br />
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Why an ambulance you might ask? Seemed warranted given the extreme pain and the fact that I was throwing up like a machine gun. 2 bursts of 4! And with such force that my ribs hurt when laughing or coughing for 4 full days thereafter.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-59482155504692912522023-04-19T15:41:00.001-07:002023-04-19T15:43:14.294-07:00Wage Inflation PressureThe following chart shows the natural log of U.S. wage and salary disbursements. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVUJd4svySPMhqJ4e3cGZXquGM6L91nBCOr1yIOIzcOc4LYLZ-VTG1Hi_nro2YagT3RsCHRIFCS7BDiddgf9XgHeliKAnj9VQ9-gPBRuxDDr2ADtxtXJLZxf6T1hcC5dayu0M194ED_mekz5CH-hMx6IxPC77yUqIEMhGJOvJjCU-0lRFbBSW2JRyt/s958/IMG_0180.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="958" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVUJd4svySPMhqJ4e3cGZXquGM6L91nBCOr1yIOIzcOc4LYLZ-VTG1Hi_nro2YagT3RsCHRIFCS7BDiddgf9XgHeliKAnj9VQ9-gPBRuxDDr2ADtxtXJLZxf6T1hcC5dayu0M194ED_mekz5CH-hMx6IxPC77yUqIEMhGJOvJjCU-0lRFbBSW2JRyt/s320/IMG_0180.jpeg"/></a></div>
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The Fed does not need to deflate wages back into the long-term channel in green, but rather to return to the slope of that channel. What's done is done. Deflation to undo the high inflation is definitely not the goal.<br />
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Some progress is being made. We've noved from the steep slope of the red line to the more moderate slope of the yellow line.<br />
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I'm convinced that they can achieve their goal, one way or another. But at what cost? I can be a bit cynical, but there's a high risk here that we're still in the early stages of a no-win situation.<br />
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How high will the unemployment rate need to rise to get us back to the healthier wage inflation trend? I have no idea, but I can say with 100% certainty that 100% unemployment would do it. Can't have any wage and salary disbursements if nobody is working.<br />
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The bulk of my net worth sits in inflation-protected I-Bonds and TIPS. As of about a year ago, my IRA sits entirely in bonds without inflation protection (TLT). And here's where I sit until I see a reason to take on more risk. Near record unemployment expected to rise, falling house prices, and high interest rates are not things that make me excited about taking on riskier investments.<br />
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Not investment advice.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-29696869438113594732023-02-10T10:38:00.000-08:002023-02-10T10:38:30.891-08:00The Sarcasm Report v.291<b>February 8, 2023</b><br />
<a href="https://lifehacker.com/the-biggest-mistakes-people-make-when-trying-to-eat-hea-1850089228">lifehacker: The Biggest Mistakes People Make When Trying to Eat Healthy</a><br />
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<i><span style="color: red;">Eating enough to stay healthy is important, and eating enough protein is a big part of that.</span></i><br />
<br />
And if you continue to scroll down after reading that article...<br />
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<b>February 10, 2023</b><br />
<a href="https://lifehacker.com/get-free-wendys-jr-bacon-cheeseburgers-until-sunday-1850099608">lifehacker: Get Free Wendy's Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers Until Sunday</a><br />
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<i><span style="color: red;">You can only get one per visit, but you can visit as many times as your stomach desires.</span></i><br /><br /><div>Bacon, cheese, and beef sure are great protein sources! Visit as many times as your stomach desires! You know, for your health! Woohoo! ;)</div>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-21865733171592778982022-12-13T06:26:00.000-08:002022-12-13T06:26:08.008-08:00Converting Paper Savings Bonds<i><span style="color: #ff0000;">Dear Customer,<br />
<br />
This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.<br />
<br />
Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.</span></i><br />
<br />
Up to 13 weeks? Ouch. The wheels on the governmental bureaucratic bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.
Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-76079140326862203342022-11-22T02:02:00.000-08:002022-11-22T02:02:08.000-08:00Elondriel’s Next Motivational Speech<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><i>In place of Twitter you would have a King! Not dark but beautiful and terrible as the seven cent Doge! Treacherous as the SpaceX! Stronger than the foundations of Tesla! All shall love me and despair!</i></span>
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<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/x3SxEOvAOEg" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-37743200845991233912022-11-17T09:20:00.001-08:002022-11-17T09:28:28.724-08:00Cancel Cultured Redux<b>November 17, 2022</b><br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/17/twitter-user-gets-account-back-after-ban-for-intimate-image-of-meteor">The Guardian: Twitter user gets account back after ban for ‘intimate’ image of meteor</a><br />
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<i><span style="color: red;">“It was not offensive or pornographic at all,” said McIntyre. “It was just a meteor.”</span></i><br />
<br />
Been there, done that. It was just a puppy! It was just a circle! Ignorance of the social media law is no defense.<br />
<br />
The social media law could not be any more clear. Do not post content that could potentially offend any human, either real or imagined.<br />
<br />
Here is a concrete example of what not to post:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRqAjB3YhtPW5uENf36utlj_DASoSmz5E7hIu4Vzeh-APEyvmlm24NK_v6dsznNlYJexmUu8HX1SOXFkrs0VuXNvdN7TFfUzxpAjDSVNiRRHML9JC2Qxq8HOCYXkW1T0vwWe8iOY-aYiIbfFFv9UQdSvkuhuC1IKshZJbRaJ3A4GG_YxYcyWxlmklm/s1006/F07F319B-EE39-40BF-8342-5A0D7C0CAFE2.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="1006" data-original-width="933" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRqAjB3YhtPW5uENf36utlj_DASoSmz5E7hIu4Vzeh-APEyvmlm24NK_v6dsznNlYJexmUu8HX1SOXFkrs0VuXNvdN7TFfUzxpAjDSVNiRRHML9JC2Qxq8HOCYXkW1T0vwWe8iOY-aYiIbfFFv9UQdSvkuhuC1IKshZJbRaJ3A4GG_YxYcyWxlmklm/s320/F07F319B-EE39-40BF-8342-5A0D7C0CAFE2.jpeg"/></a></div><br />
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Very offensive. Don't do that. ;)Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-18826661719199036492022-11-14T16:17:00.000-08:002022-11-14T16:17:48.030-08:00Cancel CulturedI bought a pretty fantastic magnetic tool on Amazon for drawing circles. Amazon pestered me to leave reviews, so I opted to comply. After submitting the following one sentence glowing review with this video demonstrating the product in all of its glory, Amazon deleted all of my reviews and has warned me to follow their guidelines. By the way, ignoring these guidelines can apparently lead to my account being suspended. Since I own Kindle books and am not much of a risk taker, no more Amazon reviews from me. Ever.<br />
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<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LRUFrbu_A14" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcR4mCqk7LJRIdFvg8EVfMkmrsx9fYWwqi76FaIcAyi_qLRj8Qk26imPbUrvEOMvu3va-rPl1UZw5IedpW5IEW8Ltqn7V1k5ZK9MwtS5Q_xz97HLWmcxj40nBY3Gy7OPPPBrvaw0ALo_s-knPicdI2NnHqZ03ZVgpzemBIJFFxaA6ownhaknOKtUp/s1124/8681BB55-3ED6-40E3-AF46-A83F25586427.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcR4mCqk7LJRIdFvg8EVfMkmrsx9fYWwqi76FaIcAyi_qLRj8Qk26imPbUrvEOMvu3va-rPl1UZw5IedpW5IEW8Ltqn7V1k5ZK9MwtS5Q_xz97HLWmcxj40nBY3Gy7OPPPBrvaw0ALo_s-knPicdI2NnHqZ03ZVgpzemBIJFFxaA6ownhaknOKtUp/s320/8681BB55-3ED6-40E3-AF46-A83F25586427.jpeg"/></a></div><br />
Welcome to social media dystopian crazy metropolis, which is a few steps up from crazy town. We've come a long way since the days I deleted my Twitter account for being shadow banned due to posting puppy pictures. A long, long way. You don't even need to incite an insurrection. Progress!<br />
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We are so headed down the doom scrolling dystopian path, and with it the illusion of prosperity will surely prosper. The illusion that is, not so much the prosperity. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-79146985720456970882022-11-10T17:02:00.001-08:002022-11-10T17:22:03.308-08:00Gimme ShelterThe following chart shows the natural log of the CPI for shelter. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSg85Wcfp9VRnwXCrwRTQo0DUSoK5WUukBoQKclCXGNUu1p52U39qFnM_V2IK79LjLX5tvkDDpcPFYJfxmB-gGxEOgU5eJELbc0nxaNK4jQpf2SFBQIyOLyqVDe4o3ewXChoyhveO789FXeqxS4mZ59wdaOqWPaUBJdgdllyy_U1GwawdLRclQFxJ9/s748/E583EEF5-9136-48DF-9C8B-F7C844DF6607.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="748" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSg85Wcfp9VRnwXCrwRTQo0DUSoK5WUukBoQKclCXGNUu1p52U39qFnM_V2IK79LjLX5tvkDDpcPFYJfxmB-gGxEOgU5eJELbc0nxaNK4jQpf2SFBQIyOLyqVDe4o3ewXChoyhveO789FXeqxS4mZ59wdaOqWPaUBJdgdllyy_U1GwawdLRclQFxJ9/s320/E583EEF5-9136-48DF-9C8B-F7C844DF6607.jpeg"/></a></div>
<br />
With lofty housing prices and lofty mortgage rates, it seems very unlikely that we're going to make it back to the top of the trend channel anytime soon. Which, if you think about it, is kind of odd. I could swear that the Fed really wanted that. Just not all at once, apparently. Too bad.<br />
<br />
If I were a gambling man, I would wager that there is more risk leaving the channel to the downside than to the upside. And maybe I am a gambling man, because I continue to hold TLT. Very encouraged by today's CPI report. One battle doesn't win the war though, of course.<br />
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<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RbmS3tQJ7Os" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-10242264965279371152022-10-30T16:58:00.000-07:002022-10-30T16:58:26.727-07:00Been There, Done ThatThe following chart shows the natural log of total business inventories. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5k254w3wmxk7mQC35VekzXRrwiZSVT0BquKGq7AEY7zmLr5wdSYUzA7uckGofiBA27_FcHbFRLRjGtxYNQCXlaSPLdswuzu1ViilbEMdJwaRR63Tv5QEg_K8837Bxc8HY9Q_FHNrz9xXsizYh1TrXY72d_ggP2og94ptIKjLVMhZH7tJRpa1uvKHU/s710/DAB40093-A2F6-449D-A450-B0F60E7101B9.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="710" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5k254w3wmxk7mQC35VekzXRrwiZSVT0BquKGq7AEY7zmLr5wdSYUzA7uckGofiBA27_FcHbFRLRjGtxYNQCXlaSPLdswuzu1ViilbEMdJwaRR63Tv5QEg_K8837Bxc8HY9Q_FHNrz9xXsizYh1TrXY72d_ggP2og94ptIKjLVMhZH7tJRpa1uvKHU/s320/DAB40093-A2F6-449D-A450-B0F60E7101B9.jpeg"/></a></div>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-80016607006223153342022-10-29T21:43:00.002-07:002022-10-29T21:43:53.684-07:00Massive Economic Uncertainty Continues<i>So many consumer surveys, but none of them ask the key questions for the next year:<br />
- How much did you accumulate in savings during the pandemic?<br />
- How much do you have left?<br />
- How much of that do you intend to spend?<br />
Without the answers, forecast margins of error are *massive.*</i><br />
<br />
<a href=https://twitter.com/IanShepherdson/status/1586059799044800512?s=20&t=7YzNlSONnVoZv36IqCDqUA>Twitter: Ian Shepherdson</a><br />
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Great questions. Too bad the Fed Chairman can't see the answers.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t8GTHXTEvIc" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-55377828470944689332022-10-24T04:27:00.000-07:002022-10-24T04:27:31.933-07:00Jerome “The Earl” PowellThe following chart shows the unemployment rate minus the 12-month percentage change in the median CPI. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term arrow in green.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpjv_zDEigu2mftCH2JLzpoPZq5iAL6pe36-CTn2c_SYQazoRB7y0TkkNhB5zT8AAiCoKolzVDbEq4zGxfzt3BHHd3popVFw-LwOlVEQ9oqkE8PHqzX1Uc7yi6KxJk47qmpkaAs_YHCRwrYJ2TiH5hoH--RhomjoQbZjracwwIc0fLwE9jDWbJMbYy/s748/2B2B5BA3-7CA2-47DE-A5D5-2C77C1319D03.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="748" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpjv_zDEigu2mftCH2JLzpoPZq5iAL6pe36-CTn2c_SYQazoRB7y0TkkNhB5zT8AAiCoKolzVDbEq4zGxfzt3BHHd3popVFw-LwOlVEQ9oqkE8PHqzX1Uc7yi6KxJk47qmpkaAs_YHCRwrYJ2TiH5hoH--RhomjoQbZjracwwIc0fLwE9jDWbJMbYy/s320/2B2B5BA3-7CA2-47DE-A5D5-2C77C1319D03.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R-xqfqcgNAE" title="YouTube video player" width="448"></iframe>
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<br /><i><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">
I looked at Earl and his eyes was wide<br />
His lip was curled, and his leg was fried<br />
And his hand was froze to the wheel<br />
Like a tongue to a sled in the middle of a blizzard<br />
<br />
I says, Earl, "I'm not the type to complain<br />
But the time has come for me to explain<br />
That if you don't apply some brake real soon<br />
They're gonna have to pick us up with a stick and a spoon"</span></i>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-12493313855714180952022-10-22T05:01:00.004-07:002022-10-22T05:06:20.273-07:00Net Worth to Total Debt RatioThe following chart shows household and nonprofit organization net worth divided by total debt in all sectors.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5LqDjcPTw-F2ciHzxPzS3DkptlzCxiGLEyeM6MKyZU9I5DRTsBYMQUx_qinfDlohDsYIbqJgHkpTSx8kjOeX5p3qEBK_SKXE5P-lh5VvV4kyo49gu3AgXY47P7i8BFCQOJh0Qu5k6sFWT8NFCpc02QX8j8T2di4Ins5ns-_m1ASZcxsRMv6WWfNZQ/s968/C0267727-FB36-49F7-B389-2E9CF741E24B.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="968" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5LqDjcPTw-F2ciHzxPzS3DkptlzCxiGLEyeM6MKyZU9I5DRTsBYMQUx_qinfDlohDsYIbqJgHkpTSx8kjOeX5p3qEBK_SKXE5P-lh5VvV4kyo49gu3AgXY47P7i8BFCQOJh0Qu5k6sFWT8NFCpc02QX8j8T2di4Ins5ns-_m1ASZcxsRMv6WWfNZQ/s320/C0267727-FB36-49F7-B389-2E9CF741E24B.jpeg"/></a></div>
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As seen using the red channel, this 60-year linear trend has failed by a large amount in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Epic failure, actually. Should have more of them. Never before has so much additional prosperity been generated by so little additional debt.<br />
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Of course, not everyone believes that fairy tales always have happy endings. Here's a scary fable involving bears that's just in time for Halloween.<br />
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Net worth has been falling rapidly lately, thanks to the stock and bond markets. We'd be back in the channel if it were to fall another 30% or so, assuming it were to continue to happen rather quickly. And what would be quicker than rapidly rising mortgage rates combined with million dollar homes?<br />
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Of course, there's another way to get back in the trend channel. Total credit market debt outstanding is only $91.2 trillion. Yes, only $91.2 trillion. A pittance, really. If we were to quickly increase it by 40% then back in the "safety" of the declining channel we would be. Think what we could do with all that free money! Here's an idea. A $36 trillion Halloween party in the name of world peace! Everyone on the planet could be invited. Nobody goes home empty handed. Woohoo!<br />
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Please don't confuse my love of gallows humor for sarcasm, nor my love of sarcasm for gallows humor. It's both. It's almost always both these days, lol. Sigh.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-2402926785723020132022-10-16T22:43:00.001-07:002022-10-16T22:45:17.017-07:00Whip Inflation Now!The following chart shows the natural log of the 30-year Treasury yield. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth (or decay) is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term trend arrow in green.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLjczw5ux7IOqxpjmmOWmxjBuyls7HdEwkgng3uxC1ZV9zk2S52HDYsDx47Zgl_36iWuCARAM9d7S-fbQW3CASvqSHvgzLu1PzKxqcbFCuPYrv-lhbVzpfYakW8FrGkL6MRxVJyknNBoa3FqA0YhNfExqwqy-IB0pI-JeiFezaVZ7yhm1yYCe9bxJD/s710/98DD503E-4B84-472B-BE95-F25922FCF8A7.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="710" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLjczw5ux7IOqxpjmmOWmxjBuyls7HdEwkgng3uxC1ZV9zk2S52HDYsDx47Zgl_36iWuCARAM9d7S-fbQW3CASvqSHvgzLu1PzKxqcbFCuPYrv-lhbVzpfYakW8FrGkL6MRxVJyknNBoa3FqA0YhNfExqwqy-IB0pI-JeiFezaVZ7yhm1yYCe9bxJD/s320/98DD503E-4B84-472B-BE95-F25922FCF8A7.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/j_QLzthSkfM" title="YouTube video player" width="448"></iframe><br />
<br />
Will the long-term trend ultimately prevail? Trapped in a world of nearly permanent ZIRP?<br /><br />
Will the short-term trend break everything? Housing! Stocks! Bonds! Employment!<br /><br />
Will it be a combination of both? Or neither?<br /><br />
Stay tuned for the next exciting and terrifying episode of...<br /><br /><span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>
Global Devolution!</b></span>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-23470911270517217172022-10-04T10:27:00.002-07:002022-10-04T10:27:37.772-07:00Job Openings Per Capita<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhycdteeWMIlBixDujLmXb3l3Zm1HlzTpvcv0sxg9beqDr4mr71JCdsE52WvG-EYenva5aGil1eSfLYbd8X3k8t-CvYfnjo7EMhP7aZfL_3-fBkgsJXqqouuPTez95sc269XqyMt5Gn9_20q86jUzWDReI165Jhz6XzWYkiiLZmAocx1SxxfyA4zAKa/s1898/2E2E8322-A017-492F-AEE8-D94B46B28A72.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="941" data-original-width="1898" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhycdteeWMIlBixDujLmXb3l3Zm1HlzTpvcv0sxg9beqDr4mr71JCdsE52WvG-EYenva5aGil1eSfLYbd8X3k8t-CvYfnjo7EMhP7aZfL_3-fBkgsJXqqouuPTez95sc269XqyMt5Gn9_20q86jUzWDReI165Jhz6XzWYkiiLZmAocx1SxxfyA4zAKa/s320/2E2E8322-A017-492F-AEE8-D94B46B28A72.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
Pop goes the weasel.<br />
<br />
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qqqG-ZJL6us" title="YouTube video player" width="448"></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-71841052590188026802022-10-04T01:25:00.002-07:002022-10-04T01:25:56.598-07:00This Is Why<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xIYJ7VaSxYY" title="YouTube video player" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
Now you know.<br />
<br />
But seriously, this song was just released and I love it! Thought I'd share. :)Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-31191113040875949622022-10-02T22:36:00.001-07:002022-10-02T22:36:59.772-07:00Soft Landing?The following is a chart of QQQ using a log scale. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHKo1an8cEQMokIQP_xqOVRCNl2pqDRoECkxLiPuZtT9RZ2JROJIqJg-qhwKvygx2qBhaawOrGyQB9LCP7qmWUIcXVZ0sRsdcsh9bKoeEyTha4kzu7H9qcbTWTr4_XW3PSgRFGcmttNMBA6ebsJxjB8G8FW2aqVyBKB5in5h2C__q5ZzlSs1cKzN4/s1972/F762453E-B0D4-4003-ADF1-8F47A352A48B.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="889" data-original-width="1972" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHKo1an8cEQMokIQP_xqOVRCNl2pqDRoECkxLiPuZtT9RZ2JROJIqJg-qhwKvygx2qBhaawOrGyQB9LCP7qmWUIcXVZ0sRsdcsh9bKoeEyTha4kzu7H9qcbTWTr4_XW3PSgRFGcmttNMBA6ebsJxjB8G8FW2aqVyBKB5in5h2C__q5ZzlSs1cKzN4/s320/F762453E-B0D4-4003-ADF1-8F47A352A48B.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
Chart courtesy of <a href="https://stockcharts.com">StockCharts.com</a>.<br />
<br /><b><span style="color: red;">
THIS IS YOUR CAPTAIN!!<br />
<br />
BRACE FOR EMERGENCY SOFT LANDING!!!</span></b>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-40066617825330335732022-09-30T14:48:00.002-07:002022-09-30T15:05:16.054-07:00The Exponential Path to DystopiaThe following chart shows the natural log of the dividends to wages ratio. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two trend lines in red (one for the peaks and one for the troughs).<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisXfHGyrI-LijNq-7FAfoBODKj8w6YkHWmrL4-MvnxDa5cUyIrrnjnFPshzGWXqX16cLRlfdsCpOZYRmAZDWqkahNMnbPsqjwbXtu_BsTzLP2bn5gJopa1NeBok-7vEQYVDwuO6TITOdDtBUUjo9VKvw575PYUt0KG-H_LvvG-hk8vFDemVIyhUE5e/s710/A650C172-AA93-4C53-985C-AA637D6E0444.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="710" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisXfHGyrI-LijNq-7FAfoBODKj8w6YkHWmrL4-MvnxDa5cUyIrrnjnFPshzGWXqX16cLRlfdsCpOZYRmAZDWqkahNMnbPsqjwbXtu_BsTzLP2bn5gJopa1NeBok-7vEQYVDwuO6TITOdDtBUUjo9VKvw575PYUt0KG-H_LvvG-hk8vFDemVIyhUE5e/s320/A650C172-AA93-4C53-985C-AA637D6E0444.jpeg"/></a></div>
<br />
The two trend lines can be traced back to where they meet. The year was roughly 1971. Doubt it's a coincidence. I'm tempted to say that falling off of the gold standard is when the illusion of long-term prosperity truly began. Kind of makes me feel like a prosperity chart archeologist.<br />
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As disturbing as that is, I'm not done yet. Note that:<br />
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1. Bad things often happen when we move towards the troughs.<br />
2. We've been moving towards a trough lately.<br />
3. Very bad things have been happening lately.<br />
4. Should we ultimately reach the next trough, there's still a very long way to go.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-82243998998907610382022-09-29T10:40:00.001-07:002022-09-29T10:40:43.393-07:00Risky BusinessesThe following chart compares the investment performance of XLU (utilities ETF) to TLT (long-term treasury bond fund).<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGTlB8dsFM_zJwWgsHpTPhfmkT2jdSgK2LcpiOFmKZj3a0XYs3_aNxQyeQ3xJ-bYM4Bv_QDl4IPdSeW3PxLLv_s7sLI6lyMc5NUTLqVjWOusNBdBzolVFBBl-zoR93e0Trky_Gb0yuypSdY8CjN-nh2442f-xvGHBu3FpRl8L4RxGNnwf0blnYerN2/s1981/3B409197-5B29-4BB9-97CD-EEF49D4028BD.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1981" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGTlB8dsFM_zJwWgsHpTPhfmkT2jdSgK2LcpiOFmKZj3a0XYs3_aNxQyeQ3xJ-bYM4Bv_QDl4IPdSeW3PxLLv_s7sLI6lyMc5NUTLqVjWOusNBdBzolVFBBl-zoR93e0Trky_Gb0yuypSdY8CjN-nh2442f-xvGHBu3FpRl8L4RxGNnwf0blnYerN2/s320/3B409197-5B29-4BB9-97CD-EEF49D4028BD.jpeg"/></a></div>
Chart courtesy of <a href=https://stockcharts.com>StockCharts.com</a>.<br />
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The only thing I can say with 100% certainty is that I have absolutely no desire to sell TLT to buy XLU right now, and if I can't buy "safe" XLU then I definitely don't want to own any other stocks.<br />
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Not investment advice.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-5490423260115465532022-09-29T00:05:00.002-07:002022-09-29T00:10:59.576-07:00Trading UpdateSold the platinum eagles I bought at $1083.74 on 8/24/21 for $904.34 ($40 over spot) today. Fairly hefty loss, with nearly half of it coming from transaction fees (counting both the buying and the selling). In hindsight, not ideal. It was a very small position, but painful just the same.<br />
<br />
I intended to hold for many years, but what a difference a year makes. When I bought, the 10-year TIPS yielded -1.01%. Today, it yields +1.39%. I must admit that I never saw that coming. It's a game changer, at least temporarily, if nothing else.<br />
<br />
That's not the main reason why I sold though. I needed to sell something in order to pay ongoing expenses. My choices were TIPS outside my retirement account, I-Bonds, EE-Bonds, and these coins.<br />
<br />
I don't want to sell anything that would push up my income this year, because I still qualify for the health insurance subsidy of the Affordable Care Act. I also don't want to sell things that are generating inflationary gains with inflation running so hot.<br />
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So, as much as it pains me, the coins had to go (and some I-Bonds too, soon). At least I can put the capital loss to very good taxation use thanks to my other investments tied directly to inflation.<br />
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Not the first difficult selling choice I've had to make. Won't be the last. TIPS generate plenty of inflationary gains but not all that much current income, savings bonds generate no income until cashed out, but the ongoing expenses continue to mostly come at night, mostly.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VrVZHxH2O1I" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-57601205767943177552022-09-27T13:03:00.000-07:002022-09-27T13:03:14.251-07:00Soft Landing?The following chart shows the natural log of the median consumer price index. I have added a long-term trend channel in green and a short-term trend line in red.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNIfkcDXJWVAq39BApw0aqkSlZFsS1YHaLX5lX49oGrd-0gtsLVcMha11FWkCjxlfX1bXk0y2iili13b3LMHE_pfh9OUXn-EzPIDEiSCbdmKMl2JDwWGQJPZDjd-TegkIeBr9-2aalMMHyy3ig5XIUcyxTURX-iLHNcStW1N8IQsDyUbvvuHz524na/s1845/5805CB4D-FFE5-4701-864D-A9D76D590E1F.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="1286" data-original-width="1845" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNIfkcDXJWVAq39BApw0aqkSlZFsS1YHaLX5lX49oGrd-0gtsLVcMha11FWkCjxlfX1bXk0y2iili13b3LMHE_pfh9OUXn-EzPIDEiSCbdmKMl2JDwWGQJPZDjd-TegkIeBr9-2aalMMHyy3ig5XIUcyxTURX-iLHNcStW1N8IQsDyUbvvuHz524na/s320/5805CB4D-FFE5-4701-864D-A9D76D590E1F.jpeg"/></a></div>
<br />
If the green channel represents the runway and the red line represents our current flight path, then we'll be very lucky not to careen off into the wastelands.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-25946107322562994832022-09-26T09:54:00.000-07:002022-09-26T09:54:11.381-07:00Household Net WorthThe following chart shows the natural log of household net worth. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLAhhu6UTLF4khgWB6dwb-VMYv-snZUvuq12O-9IWFU0SL5huQESQrmzkNzmXp0wbg0J9-2kZqE2SjJnWERHYcPi7K_ws1av5k8yVBmousNomEOmVzwjMUr4zSgysheGBCRo8h2gq7CsG3An5C8HH6t8AwePuLGVR9jC8RvgjXk18yecwJufb0hsMR/s968/F94798ED-D4F2-49E4-9AE2-BECEE9851BB1.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="968" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLAhhu6UTLF4khgWB6dwb-VMYv-snZUvuq12O-9IWFU0SL5huQESQrmzkNzmXp0wbg0J9-2kZqE2SjJnWERHYcPi7K_ws1av5k8yVBmousNomEOmVzwjMUr4zSgysheGBCRo8h2gq7CsG3An5C8HH6t8AwePuLGVR9jC8RvgjXk18yecwJufb0hsMR/s320/F94798ED-D4F2-49E4-9AE2-BECEE9851BB1.png"/></a></div>
<br />
<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Dm-uif8SYYs" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-80305499640904140762022-09-23T20:38:00.002-07:002022-09-23T20:38:31.747-07:00Metaverse Real Estate Gallows HumorAs seen in the image below, I just did an Internet search for "metaverse real estate prices" and I feel the need to share the results.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz7wEQxp7QOO3PRCu9q7whQEfDmI7N7Xe77OCCUYkJCW18Vo51v6qCWtTG7-wtYmj0jjz_ByEHotWXg-4HvLoIVqUUdH6_vPFlUwwE136XbQLatIiPshkak1FoFJGgLU6SKGdijW8qZlFR5IhlHMGEuEm2MdU4tdxxTwsxIPuz1IDq4SvanG_2v9qm/s1148/AFD0F094-746B-42F8-8267-F39B94339A06.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1148" data-original-width="1125" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz7wEQxp7QOO3PRCu9q7whQEfDmI7N7Xe77OCCUYkJCW18Vo51v6qCWtTG7-wtYmj0jjz_ByEHotWXg-4HvLoIVqUUdH6_vPFlUwwE136XbQLatIiPshkak1FoFJGgLU6SKGdijW8qZlFR5IhlHMGEuEm2MdU4tdxxTwsxIPuz1IDq4SvanG_2v9qm/s320/AFD0F094-746B-42F8-8267-F39B94339A06.jpeg" /></a></div>
<br />
It's a rare treat to stumble upon such a rewarding gem. Do I keep searching? Do I read the two articles that I found? No, I'm good. I think my questions have been fully answered, lol.<br />
<br />
This search was inspired by today's tweet from <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1573423500110729216?s=20&t=g64LCJdiM8lWTW6VJh5_rQ">@MacroAlf</a>:<br />
<br />
<i><span style="color: red;">Thoughts and prayers to people who took a mortgage to buy real estate in the Metaverse.</span></i><br />
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Mark Twain once said, "Buy land, they're not making it anymore." Too bad he's not still around to offer his thoughts on imaginary land, lol.Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-64070932758239720142022-09-23T16:12:00.000-07:002022-09-23T16:12:04.334-07:00SPY vs. TLTThe following chart compares the investment performance of SPY to TLT, as a ratio between the two. I have added 3 trend channels in blue, red, and green.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgocde-GJW1MsYP1wdcVU5qzvs_blYsIhW5DP8yd03uDAwFhTghBEvn6KmImHoZI5zH11uj99YhrLsiL_IQG8FlkQSQ2oaM9Ag_BRGdXkk4P052jZHtnEC2NNxi6qMKw_bbkymcXDEWKuMR28rFSFzLKGeSUlcTGC7r_agBAqJKIfz17AM3QDQq3cn_/s2010/C1890127-9E0F-493C-B2A4-A73F087B8DB1.jpeg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="2010" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgocde-GJW1MsYP1wdcVU5qzvs_blYsIhW5DP8yd03uDAwFhTghBEvn6KmImHoZI5zH11uj99YhrLsiL_IQG8FlkQSQ2oaM9Ag_BRGdXkk4P052jZHtnEC2NNxi6qMKw_bbkymcXDEWKuMR28rFSFzLKGeSUlcTGC7r_agBAqJKIfz17AM3QDQq3cn_/s320/C1890127-9E0F-493C-B2A4-A73F087B8DB1.jpeg"/></a></div>
Chart courtesy of <a href=https://stockcharts.com>StockCharts.com</a>.<br />
<br />
You're a true optimist if you believe any of the following::<br />
<br />
1. There's any chance that we'll stay in the green channel long-term.<br />
2. There's a reasonable chance that we'll stay well above the red channel long-term.<br />
3. Entering the blue channel ever again would be absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable.<br />
<br />
I'm not saying that you would necessarily be wrong to be a true optimist, and that the future we will find ourselves in truly could be the best of all possible worlds. However, I am saying that if you are a true optimist right now, at this moment, then I'd sure like to be smoking what you're smoking!<br />
<br />
I am not an optimist. You can try to pry the shares of TLT from my cold dead fingers, but I'm not dead yet. Might seem that way as I patiently wait for trends to break though! Trends break. That's what they do. And each time the Fed raises rates, it puts us one step closer to the edge.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4qlCC1GOwFw" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-37455344931363021862022-09-13T16:49:00.002-07:002022-09-13T16:49:48.520-07:00Food at HomeThe following chart shows the natural log of the consumer price index for food at home. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in green, a steeper short-term trend line in blue (heading into the Great Recession), and an even steeper short-term channel in red (our current trajectory).<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjayNmpaHGilb3J_CthAHv2lgRQmSCjp2p8S4SSI4FaBwAGOFmutsfpH55npwkZbx0DljppsKf1BeiC4bJw3bImpeqcBRJvwFb2OKTezpc4lY1dD-wcW9gohfY7GB5_baYoz4xCDjkB5b6X9hUnP9eBN7hXD_NZLIZ49iofYeHV7N0LYajoeKogkIqW/s968/56160C72-F420-43CF-8762-5FBB5F32B292.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="968" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjayNmpaHGilb3J_CthAHv2lgRQmSCjp2p8S4SSI4FaBwAGOFmutsfpH55npwkZbx0DljppsKf1BeiC4bJw3bImpeqcBRJvwFb2OKTezpc4lY1dD-wcW9gohfY7GB5_baYoz4xCDjkB5b6X9hUnP9eBN7hXD_NZLIZ49iofYeHV7N0LYajoeKogkIqW/s320/56160C72-F420-43CF-8762-5FBB5F32B292.png"/></a></div>
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The stock market sure doesn't like it. Not one bit. Isn't feeling all that confident about a soft landing. Starting to wonder why the captain's warning of "some pain" while wearing a parachute?<br />
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It's not all bad news. Hey, at least we're sitting in the middle of the long-term trend channel. Small comfort, I know.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="448" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7-9wXQpzESo" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com17