I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Export Growth: What's the Worst That Could Happen?
The following chart shows the annual change in our exports of goods and services.
My fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
QE -> more competitive dollar -> more exports (yeay!)
ReplyDeletemore exports -> less output to consume domestically -> more inflation (yeay!)
Deflation with $40T of debt is the road to default.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sHf
shf indeed!
Export to whom?
ReplyDeleteMy fear, fwiw, is $40T is an unsolvable problem. All the poles are on the left-hand of the plane to borrow a really old engineering joke. So we're faced with deflation or hyperinflation, there is no in between. Conventional wisdom is that deflation can't happen. The Fed/TPTB won't allow it.
However, I've never seen everyone make the same bet and have it pay-out. There's no one left to pay it, which is back to the export solution. Export, to whom?
AllanF (& Troy),
ReplyDeleteExport, to whom?
To all the other countries desperate to export to us of course!
Ba dum tssshhh
Sigh.