Monday, December 15, 2014

Bond Yields: A Deadly Game of Cat and Mouse (and Hawks)

The following chart compares the 13-week average of the 30-year treasury yield (left scale, in red) to the 13-week average of the 2-year treasury yield (right scale, in blue).


Click to enlarge.

1. The cat is moving down (~0.8%) about 4 times faster than the mouse is moving up (~0.2%).

2. The cat seems to have a plan. The mouse seems to have some concern (as seen in October).

3. The cat enjoys playing with birds.



The mighty Fed hawk is all like, "Hey, cat, why won't you be playin' with me?"

And the cat is all like, "Get outta my business and stuff. Kitty tryin' to nap."

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
at

5 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 15, 2014 at 3:27 PM

    Cat's playing with birds and the mighty Fed Hawk made me think of this post, which is interesting from the "pattern point of view".

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/murmuration-in-the-wall-street-casino-how-starling-flock-behanvior-explains-buy-the-dip/

    We've got these starling in Sacramento. A few times a year (as they pass-through migrating, I guess) they can be seen in the morning and evening commute. The patterns they make are fascinating.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkDecember 15, 2014 at 4:19 PM

    Anonymous,

    This behavior is often sparked by the presence of a predator, like a hawk, and the movement is based on evasive maneuvers. There is safety in numbers, so the individual starlings do not scatter, but rather are able to move as an intelligent cloud, feinting away from a diving raptor, thousands of birds changing direction almost simultaneously.

    Yeah, that does fit in with this post's theme! Thanks for sharing!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Rob DawgDecember 15, 2014 at 4:40 PM

    Every once in a great while the birds win.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Rob DawgDecember 15, 2014 at 4:41 PM

    Farside:
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CG84bT0i6FU/SXjPq0aypaI/AAAAAAAAAOc/ZIGoA6rmTHU/s400/farside.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stagflationary MarkDecember 15, 2014 at 5:47 PM

    Rob Dawg,

    Hell, maybe we're all getting a little carried away with this. Admittedly a few birds did act strange, but that's no reason to... - Sebastian Sholes, fisherman in diner, The Birds (1963)

    ReplyDelete