tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post2406851635832768166..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: I-Bond Rate Prediction for May 1st, 2012Stagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-57444739187436621232012-03-31T20:06:47.536-07:002012-03-31T20:06:47.536-07:00Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but...<a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080487/quotes?qt=qt0484920" rel="nofollow">Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but...</a>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-16466523363552926402012-03-31T20:02:45.284-07:002012-03-31T20:02:45.284-07:00Troy,
In 2030, my earliest I-Bonds will begin to ...Troy,<br /><br />In 2030, my earliest I-Bonds will begin to mature and I should be within a decade or so of my life expectancy, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080487/quotes" rel="nofollow">so I got that goin' for me, which is nice</a>, lol.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-85716994471579275012012-03-31T19:46:05.101-07:002012-03-31T19:46:05.101-07:00Just for "fun" I revised CBO's 2030 ...Just for "fun" I revised CBO's 2030 spreadsheet a little . . . substituting 1/2 the real growth they envision to 2030:<br /><br />1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0%<br />1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%<br /><br />but keeping revenue at percent of GDP and expenses as they project.<br /><br />For 2020 they foresee a deficit of $375B vs. my numbers: $450B (primary) + $872B (interest)<br /><br />Their 2030 number has a $400B deficit, $19.2T national debt on a $24T economy.<br /><br />My 2030 number has a $3.2T deficit, $43T national debt on a $19T economy. That sounds bad but it's only 230% Debt-to-GDP.<br /><br />The above was using their predicted interest rates (which smoothly rise from 2% to 5% between now and 2030). Limiting that rise to 3% (what interest rates are telling us), changes the 2030 situation to a $2.1T deficit ($1.1T primary and $1T interest) and a $34T national debt (180% of GDP).<br /><br />Japan situation averted!Troynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-47793435848164287162012-03-31T18:12:59.811-07:002012-03-31T18:12:59.811-07:00Apologies to mab and Troy for comments trapped in ...Apologies to mab and Troy for comments trapped in the SPAM filter again. They've just been published.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-72724571945516689262012-03-31T17:59:50.754-07:002012-03-31T17:59:50.754-07:00Here's a special offer to the US Government.
...Here's a special offer to the US Government.<br /><br />I'll pretend to believe we are not in crisis when I see I bond rates back on the black trend line.<br /><br />It's a pretty good deal for you actually. Just think of all the heckling I'm currently doing at your expense.<br /><br />I'm such a sellout.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.speakernetnews.com/post/heckler.html" rel="nofollow">Dealing with Hecklers</a><br /><br /><i>Lose eye contact with that person. Pretend they don't exist. Others know he is being rude and by doing this, he is the one who looks bad, not you. By losing eye contact and not reinforcing his behavior you may see he will stop.</i><br /><br />This also works for me of course. I do not want to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times" rel="nofollow">come to the attention of those in authority</a>. I should warn you that I am a persistent heckler though. It's almost like a hobby of mine. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-22655109217210738412012-03-31T17:33:42.077-07:002012-03-31T17:33:42.077-07:00Also note that even if we were not in crisis right...Also note that even if we were not in crisis right now, I-Bond rates would only be 0.4% to 0.6% based on today's TIPS yields.<br /><br />Prosperity here we come and/or went!Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com