tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post4218228596941415234..comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Comments on Illusion of Prosperity: Cramer's GoldStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-60467761249119655122010-11-12T17:04:04.137-08:002010-11-12T17:04:04.137-08:00watchtower,
It's all about leverage to me.
G...watchtower,<br /><br />It's all about leverage to me.<br /><br />Gold and silver bugs feel that owning physical gold and silver feels safe because they are the closest thing to a deleveraged investment one can have. I know. I've been there myself. Holding physical coins in one's hand feels safe.<br /><br />However, gold and silver are not deleveraged investments. Since gold and silver are so rare, they are two of the most easily leveraged metals in the entire periodic table.<br /><br /><a href="http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldFutures" rel="nofollow">BullionVault: Gold futures</a><br /><br /><i>For example, suppose you had $5,000 to invest. If you buy gold bullion and settle you can only buy $5,000 worth. But you can probably buy $100,000 of gold futures!</i><br /><br />Note the use of the exclamation point.<br /><br /><i>You can see why futures are dangerous for people who get carried away with their own certainties.</i><br /><br />When I bought gold and silver in 2004 (and sold in 2006) I hadn't given that much thought. Here's what I wrote in 2007 though.<br /><br /><a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/fed-funds-rate-vs-commodities.html" rel="nofollow">Fed Funds Rate vs. Commodities</a><br /><br /><i>I bought gold and silver for the first time in my life back in 2004. I know exactly why I did it. It is still fresh in my mind. My gut said that earning 1% in three month treasury bills when inflation was clearly higher than that was not a good thing. I didn't know how long it would go on. The Fed pretty much forced me to own something of substance. Since I'm a saver by nature, I chose rocks. I already had a house. I can understand why renters might choose to buy. It surprised me that the rocks did so well. It surprised homeowners that real estate did so well. I just wanted a hedge against inflation but I got so much more than that. <b>If you can believe in that chart above, you'll see that I actually bought a piece of heavily leveraged inflation.</b> It seems a very small change in the Fed Funds rate can (not always) have a dramatic effect on commodity prices. Why? We live in an overleveraged society. Everything is overleveraged. Just look at how many hedge funds we have. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.</i>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-37099334069221253242010-11-12T16:42:44.188-08:002010-11-12T16:42:44.188-08:00mab,
I have observed that the world has suffered ...mab,<br /><br /><i>I have observed that the world has suffered far less from ignorance than from pretensions to knowledge. It is not skeptics or explorers but fanatics and ideologues who menace decency and progress. No agnostic ever burned anyone at the stake or tortured a pagan, a heretic, or an unbeliever.</i> - Daniel BoorstinStagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-1557126032670578612010-11-12T13:55:19.841-08:002010-11-12T13:55:19.841-08:00"Sorry to pick on your baby today"
I ha..."Sorry to pick on your baby today"<br /><br />I have to face it, the gilded biscuit wheels are falling off my silver gravy boat train!<br /><br />"the horror...the horror"watchtowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-55954012984284639922010-11-12T13:38:57.696-08:002010-11-12T13:38:57.696-08:00Two words: Gold Bug
One word: Zealot
Mish is a ...<i>Two words: Gold Bug</i><br /><br />One word: Zealot<br /><br />Mish is a religious fanatic. His beliefs in gold and the Austrian School of eCONomics are something to behold. <br /><br />I got news for Mish - there ain't no auto-pilot switches in life.mabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-2234359627140849032010-11-12T13:05:12.922-08:002010-11-12T13:05:12.922-08:00Looks like the ongoing Rubicon joke is back on tra...Looks like the ongoing Rubicon joke is back on track. Woohoo!Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-46268427996761483572010-11-12T12:00:43.067-08:002010-11-12T12:00:43.067-08:00Mish: QE II Bet Starts to Unravel
It remains to b...<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/qe-ii-bet-starts-to-unravel.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29" rel="nofollow">Mish: QE II Bet Starts to Unravel</a><br /><br /><i>It remains to be seen if this is the start of a serious correction or just another dip-buying opportunity (in literally everything), but with sentiment sky-high and nearly everyone believing QE II is a one-way bet, I am more inclined to believe the former.<br /><br />As far as gold goes, I do not expect the shellacking we saw in 2008. In fact there might not be much of a pullback at all. However, I can easily be wrong.</i><br /><br />1. Hard assets took a serious "shellacking" today.<br />2. Gold is a hard asset.<br />3. Gold took a serious "shellacking" today.<br /><br />4. Hard assets took a serious "shellacking" in 2008.<br />5. Gold is a hard asset.<br />6. Gold took a serious "shellacking" in 2008.<br /><br />7. He thinks hard assets will likely experience a serious "shellacking" from here.<br />8. Gold is a hard asset.<br />9. Unlike today and 2008, gold will somehow be immune to more "shellacking" this time though.<br /><br />Two words: Gold BugStagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-40695638006299563412010-11-12T10:35:34.959-08:002010-11-12T10:35:34.959-08:00"We've had another Robert RubinCON crossi..."We've had another Robert RubinCON crossing today! I'll check with my contacts in Vegas to see if there is an over/under bet on how many times we'll cross the rubicon."<br /><br />It won't be official (by my count anyway) unless we actually close below 1200 on the S&P. And we won't know that it will for sure until either the end of the trading day OR unless Cramer issues another "kiss of death" by predicting a closing rally, lol.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-44087624516886339042010-11-12T10:26:16.428-08:002010-11-12T10:26:16.428-08:00Stag,
The Cramer heckling is hilarious! It's ...Stag,<br /><br />The Cramer heckling is hilarious! It's also well deserved. <br /><br />At the tail end of the the housing bubble, Cramer was telling people to buy the home builders. He claimed they were no longer cyclical and that they had become "land banks". The rest is history. <br /><br />p.s.<br /><br />We've had another Robert RubinCON crossing today! I'll check with my contacts in Vegas to see if there is an over/under bet on how many times we'll cross the rubicon.Angry Saverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04827882305661487070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-62351623960900317332010-11-12T10:00:50.222-08:002010-11-12T10:00:50.222-08:00watchtower,
Cramerized? Indeed.
Sorry to pick on...watchtower,<br /><br />Cramerized? Indeed.<br /><br />Sorry to pick on your baby today, but you are hardly a latecomer. Picture those who just bought on Cramer's advice! First Cisco and now this? Good grief.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-37540733580511862552010-11-12T09:56:33.707-08:002010-11-12T09:56:33.707-08:00Do Not Sell: Stand Fast!
We are right and our inv...<a href="http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=29797&tid=60383&mid=60383&tof=9&frt=2" rel="nofollow">Do Not Sell: Stand Fast!</a><br /><br /><i>We are right and our investment has already paid off.</i><br /><br />The good news: 10 people rated that post as excellent.<br />The bad news: It was posted two days ago.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-91810112393534314672010-11-12T09:54:07.710-08:002010-11-12T09:54:07.710-08:00PM's have been Cramerized?!
I was wondering w...PM's have been Cramerized?!<br /><br />I was wondering what had happened.<br /><br />There goes my "neon rainbows and and living that honky tonk dream".<br /><br />That basturd.watchtowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-80146620968424037412010-11-12T09:09:43.729-08:002010-11-12T09:09:43.729-08:00Down $20.30 now WTF!!!!!!!
Can anyone explain the...<a href="http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=ts&bn=72878&tid=265189&mid=265189&tof=4&rt=2&frt=2&off=1" rel="nofollow">Down $20.30 now WTF!!!!!!!</a><br /><br /><i>Can anyone explain the drop? Serious posts only no shorts please</i><br /><br />He wants to know why gold is going down but only wants answers from those betting it will go up? Seriously?Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-22973149847317169062010-11-12T08:27:23.950-08:002010-11-12T08:27:23.950-08:00SLV is getting hit hard today. Who is blamed?
The...SLV is getting hit hard today. Who is blamed?<br /><br /><a href="http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?m=ts&bn=29797&tid=61392&mid=61392&tof=3&rt=2&frt=2&off=1" rel="nofollow">The Kiss-of Death Cramer Indicator</a><br /><br />This comment thread is becoming my version of Cramer twitter! ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-26926005842715703942010-11-12T07:01:43.467-08:002010-11-12T07:01:43.467-08:00I just can't stop.
"Unlike other commodi...I just can't stop.<br /><br />"Unlike other commodities such as oil, grain or copper, gold is a currency, he said, adding it's what people buy when they don't trust their own currency." - Cramer<br /><br />If you don't trust your currency then oil and food should be top of the list. Surely everyone must know that by now. Apparently Cramer somehow missed the currency induced rice shortage a few years ago.<br /><br />Costco ran out of white rice as people hoarded it. They never did run out of gold jewelry though. Go figure.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-83050418593681391962010-11-12T06:35:03.407-08:002010-11-12T06:35:03.407-08:00It's officially pick on Cramer day, lol.
Cra...It's officially pick on Cramer day, lol.<br /><br /><a href="http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=172027" rel="nofollow"> Cramer's Y2k Reprise</a><br /><br />Apparently I was not the only one experiencing 2k deja vu!Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-58305819082299796022010-11-12T00:13:05.649-08:002010-11-12T00:13:05.649-08:00As a side note, when I bought gold and silver in 2...As a side note, when I bought gold and silver in 2004 I had the exact same mentality. I backed up the truck and knew at the time I was a net seller from there on out. I chose 2006. The first parabola scraped me off.<br /><br />I live by the rule that if one must panic, at least panic first. Based on the current price of gold (especially compared to aluminum) and assuming gold continues to climb, I strongly suspect that the panic out of that "safe haven" will be epic someday (just as it was in the aftermath of the last gold bubble).Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-56119308521644269142010-11-12T00:02:07.140-08:002010-11-12T00:02:07.140-08:00Is it a gold bubble? Not yet
Several experts say ...<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/is-it-a-gold-bubble-not-yet.aspx" rel="nofollow">Is it a gold bubble? Not yet</a><br /><br /><i>Several experts say gold still has room to run. But if you're thinking of buying, be careful: After the smart money sells, latecomers can be left holding the bag.</i><br /><br />I can't/won't argue with that. There could be plenty more room to run. However...<br /><br /><i>In fact, I think the decade-long gold supercycle has some time to run. But we're closer to the end than the beginning, and I'm watching carefully for signs of the blowout phase before selling any of my small position in the SPDR Gold Shares(GLD).</i><br /><br />From what I can see, he's a net seller from here who is simply trying to maximize/time his exit point. Gold bugs better hope he's the exception and not the rule.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com