tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.comments2024-02-17T12:34:01.400-08:00Illusion of ProsperityStagflationary Markhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comBlogger24416125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-19360443509791376152024-02-16T14:49:14.191-08:002024-02-16T14:49:14.191-08:006mm feels like 6cm for the participant.
Regards...6mm feels like 6cm for the participant. <br /><br />Regards,<br />Rob DawgRob Dawgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-70463970288229665792024-01-29T10:46:52.073-08:002024-01-29T10:46:52.073-08:00I was just thinking how amazing CR was as a resour...I was just thinking how amazing CR was as a resource 2004- ~2012.<br /><br />That place was plugged in! Commenters were even boosting bitcoin like in 2011 IIRC.Torokunaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00476241038512060746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-71686760926099019172024-01-28T19:17:03.764-08:002024-01-28T19:17:03.764-08:00The older I get, the less time I have left. Trying...The older I get, the less time I have left. Trying very hard not to waste any more of it.<br /><br />That said, I wasted some time on social media (board gaming forum) last week needlessly. It was a mistake. Very unsatisfying. Should have been playing with our dogs instead.<br /><br />https://despair.com/products/persistence<br /><br />Just let her (social media) go, lol. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-72391374127260187932024-01-22T21:08:16.660-08:002024-01-22T21:08:16.660-08:00I’m not going.
I’m going back in.
I’m not going an...<i>I’m not going.<br />I’m going back in.<br />I’m not going anywhere else.<br />I have a few things I don’t think we have.<br />I’m going back in.<br />I have a few things.</i><br /><br />Rumor has it that this was actually the proposed plot for John Wick 5. ;)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-15665784224168621222024-01-22T11:01:46.311-08:002024-01-22T11:01:46.311-08:00Lmao!Lmao!Shookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16289503484178700104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-43313694872318464832024-01-15T09:20:52.788-08:002024-01-15T09:20:52.788-08:00My daughter (a long time ago) had a kidney stone w...My daughter (a long time ago) had a kidney stone when she was only around 9. I think she handled the pain better than I did.MyFriendFatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07280792241892832453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-57014455431798378242023-08-09T11:12:16.592-07:002023-08-09T11:12:16.592-07:00Hahaha!
Patient: I have a stabbing pain in my rig...Hahaha!<br /><br />Patient: I have a stabbing pain in my right eye every time I drink tea.<br />Doctor: Take the spoon out first.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-22756971380905441772023-08-05T20:25:16.317-07:002023-08-05T20:25:16.317-07:00Will be contacting a urologist on Monday. A friend...Will be contacting a urologist on Monday. A friend has a similarly sized kidney stone and his urologist does not want to bombard it with sonic death rays unless absolutely necessary. *shrug*Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-49199612058919538392023-08-05T18:28:05.844-07:002023-08-05T18:28:05.844-07:00What a nightmare. Sorry you had to endure that.
...What a nightmare. Sorry you had to endure that. <br /><br />Can they break up the other time bombs with ultrasonic? <br /><br />I'm picturing the asteroid field in the Empire Strikes Back. Mr Slipperynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-20447393288306493532023-08-05T05:41:57.552-07:002023-08-05T05:41:57.552-07:00Kidney stones are no joke. I hope the time bombs i...Kidney stones are no joke. I hope the time bombs in the other kidney pass easier when they go.Who Struck Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06359715705053814488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-15839968165345183582023-08-04T04:37:37.846-07:002023-08-04T04:37:37.846-07:00My strategy for the year has been to hold VTIP in ...My strategy for the year has been to hold VTIP in both personal and retirement accounts, and channel the dividends to my treasury money market accounts. VTIP, of course, distrbutes its securitys' inflation adjustments to principal as a dividend, together with interest from those securites - an ideal inflation adjusted income stream, though I'm saving it all since I have sufficent income from pension and social security. VTIP has been maligned by some for transient share price "loss" from rising rates, but that's a misplaced view which conflates bonds with "total return" notions more pertinet to stocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-52341280822230529162023-08-02T23:59:50.883-07:002023-08-02T23:59:50.883-07:00The “have not” economy does seem to be headed our ...The “have not” economy does seem to be headed our way.<br /><br />As you say, labor market is tight and savers have it pretty good right now.<br /><br />That was also true in 2000 and 2007 though. As a long-term saver, I do have an uneasy feeling that the pendulum may soon swing the other way.<br /><br />Doesn’t change your “have not” theory though. I’m a believer in that.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-51646872900962870152023-05-31T18:16:47.620-07:002023-05-31T18:16:47.620-07:00That sounds like a forced savings plan. That scamm...That sounds like a forced savings plan. That scammer did you a favor!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-58459022702582765162023-05-31T16:31:03.158-07:002023-05-31T16:31:03.158-07:00It’s an especially bad time to buy right now, at l...It’s an especially bad time to buy right now, at least for me.<br /><br />A fraudulent charge appeared on my credit card this morning, so I called my credit card company and they are sending me a new card. It’s my only credit card, so no online buying for me until it gets here.<br /><br />I’ve had the card 30 years. If memory serves, this is the third time it has happened. The last time was just in the past year or two. It’s anecdotal to be sure, but the fraud appears to be accelerating.<br /><br />Illusion of Prosperity?<br />The Age of Fraud?<br /><br />Ugh.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-16911813943142982532023-05-31T15:45:02.213-07:002023-05-31T15:45:02.213-07:00There’s never a bad tine to buy according to CNBC....There’s never a bad tine to buy according to CNBC. They won’t be happy until the last retail investor is “all in.” <br /><br />Sigh. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-59845828908396952092023-05-30T16:40:05.619-07:002023-05-30T16:40:05.619-07:00Great Unknown,
May 30, 2023
CNBC: What to do with...Great Unknown,<br /><br /><b>May 30, 2023</b><br /><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/select/what-to-do-with-an-extra-100/" rel="nofollow">CNBC: What to do with an extra $100</a><br /><br /><i>An extra $100 is the perfect amount to dip your toe into the stock market.</i><br /><br />Perfect amount!! Everyone should easily have an extra $100 after all the excellent ideas CNBC has given us this month. It’s only 36 minutes of actual work!<br /><br /><b>May 28, 2023</b><br /><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/28/gloria-richards-lucrative-side-hustle-nannying-for-the-ultra-wealthy.html" rel="nofollow">CNBC: 34-year-old makes up to $167 an hour nannying for the mega-rich: I could work just 2 months a year and ‘be fine’</a><br /><br />Prosperity click bait. *shrug*Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-64435392924211750532023-05-29T15:44:36.212-07:002023-05-29T15:44:36.212-07:00Wow! That info is pure gold and a very comprehensi...Wow! That info is pure gold and a very comprehensive explanation. As you mentioned it’s worthy of a blog post. <br /><br />Thanks so much!<br /><br />I bought TLT and EDV too early last year, but fortunately I had enough cash in reserve to dollar cost average on the way down. Then when they rallied back up, I luckily exited my positions near the short-term top for a small percentage loss. I started building the positions back as the prices dropped again. So my new cost basis is a lot better now. <br /><br />Thanks for the mention of LPTZ. It looks like a better ETF than TIPS. <br /><br />I have some very short term T-Bills coming due over the next three months and I plan to go with longer term treasuries. <br /><br />Like you I was lucky to buy I savings bonds back in 2000, 2001 and 2002. We’ve been getting some very good interest on those over the past year! Of course, it’ll be painful paying the tax man when they mature, but it beats having losses!<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-12263321680107287952023-05-29T04:49:22.195-07:002023-05-29T04:49:22.195-07:00Thanks for this. Strategy is good.Thanks for this. Strategy is good.Shookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16289503484178700104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-71089688391202213752023-05-28T13:19:15.876-07:002023-05-28T13:19:15.876-07:00I had one more unimportant sentence to add, but I ...I had one more unimportant sentence to add, but I reached the limit on how many characters could be posted in a reply. That’s a first. It’s therefore a personal best for how long-winded I could be in the comments of my blog, lol. :)<br /><br />Bonus sentence:<br /><br />I’m definitely not a believer that the more we break, the more prosperous we will be. *shrug*Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-68941345505945351982023-05-28T13:12:48.205-07:002023-05-28T13:12:48.205-07:00Long-Term government bonds bought now:
0.9% I-Bon...Long-Term government bonds bought now:<br /><br />0.9% I-Bonds: Must hold at least one year. Tax-deferred until cashed out. Limited amount can be purchased each year. If sold within 5 years, lose last 3 months interest. Will always be worth at least as much as they were the previous month, even if interest rates rise. You CAN’T lose money. Safest investment of all the choices. On the other hand, if interest rates fall, you will not make extra money, for there is no way to resell them to others. Therefore, best to purchase if you are worried about interest rates continuing to rise.<br /><br />1.6% TIPS: Pays more interest than I-Bonds. Not tax-deferred. If sold before maturity, will need to pay transaction fees. Bond transaction fees are higher than when trading stocks and often not nearly as transparent. No transaction fees or expenses if bought directly from government and held to maturity. If interest rates rise, resell value goes down. You can lose money. If rates fall, resale value goes up. Best to purchase if you believe interest rates will be flat or fall, or you intend to hold to maturity.<br /><br />3.9% Treasury Bond: NO inflation protection, which can either be good or bad depending on what inflation does. If sold before maturity, will need to pay transaction fees. Bond transaction fees are higher than when trading stocks and often not nearly as transparent. No transaction fees or expenses if bought directly from government and held to maturity. Like TIPS, will lose money if interest rates rise (and you resell them). Best to purchase if you think deflation and/or ZIRP will reappear.<br /><br />LTPZ: If 1.6% TIPS interest you, then so should LTPZ. Fund expenses are low. Transaction fees are low. Best to purchase if you are betting on TIPS in the short to medium term. If the long-term bonds are intended to be held to maturity, better to buy the individual bonds directly from the government to avoid fund expenses.<br /><br />TLT: If 3.9% Treasury Bonds interest you, then so should TLT. Fund expenses are low. Transaction fees are low. Best to purchase if you are betting on 3.9% Treasury Bonds in the short to medium term. If the long-term bonds are intended to be held to maturity, better to buy the individual bonds directly from the government to avoid fund expenses.<br /><br />High inflation over the short-term does not necessarily mean that LTPZ will outperform TLT, by the way. These are long-term investments. It’s not about what inflation is, but more about what it will be. Both TLT and LTPZ are taking damage from the short-term inflation problem, as the Fed has been forced to fight it. And even with inflation running hot, TLT has been doing at least as well as LTPZ. Rising interest rates have been the bigger story, and rising real rates in particular.<br /><br />I am not losing sleep over owning TLT, nor am I losing sleep over my individual TIPS. I think we’re very close to a peak in long-term interest rates, both real (inflation adjusted):and nominal. Might be ignorance is bliss though, if I am wrong not to be losing sleep. Regardless, I am pleased that I own so many I-Bonds though. They have definitely not been losing money. They’ve been a great investment since 2000, and have really been shining lately.<br /><br />In summary, I think there are good reasons to own all the bonds I’ve mentioned here. These are the best interest rates long-term savers have seen in quite a few years. Of the choices, I don’t really have much of a preference (other than my usual TIPS and I-Bond bias). I would much rather own any of them than short-term bonds with instant gratification, that may not last long if ZIRP returns. I’m all about locking in good deals, and 1.6% over inflation is a pretty good deal over the long-term given what I think is coming (again).<br /><br />I’d love to be optimistic and change my blog’s name to simply Prosperity, but I just can’t believe that a pandemic can improve our country’s long-term prosperity. Seems much more likely to be a version of the deluded broken window fallacy, where bad things do eventually lead to bad things.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-73798373055280436472023-05-28T04:40:40.125-07:002023-05-28T04:40:40.125-07:00Yeah. I totally understand. Just put it on the “To...Yeah. I totally understand. Just put it on the “To Do” list. <br /><br />Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-31494465896703991362023-05-27T14:51:01.611-07:002023-05-27T14:51:01.611-07:00Great Unknown,
Feeling especially lazy today. Thi...Great Unknown,<br /><br />Feeling especially lazy today. This deserves a long reply and maybe even its own post. Will provide details, answers, thoughts, pros, cons, and opinions by end of (my) day tomorrow. :)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-49305346810766868342023-05-27T11:04:16.761-07:002023-05-27T11:04:16.761-07:00I know you’ve put a lot of thought into TLT, TIPs ...I know you’ve put a lot of thought into TLT, TIPs and I savings bonds so I’d like to take advantage of your knowledge in this area. <br /><br />If I understand the vehicles correctly, TIPs and I Savings bonds would do about the same over time given the same inflation rate, but that TIPS don’t have the disadvantages of the maximum annual contribution limit or the early withdrawal interest penalty (if you needed to sell within 5 years).<br /><br />Relative to TLT and TIPs, it would seem that TLT might be the better selection for a trade if interest rates were expected to fall in the next year or so, but that TIPs would be better if inflation was expected to stay the same or rise again longer term (after a fall in the short term)?<br /><br />And last question. Your thoughts about buying actual TIPs via treasury or just buying the TIPS ETF?<br /><br />Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-11557151627215798602023-05-02T10:43:16.104-07:002023-05-02T10:43:16.104-07:00Red line is already broken, just need to get from ...Red line is already broken, just need to get from yellow to green. I think you do that by mixing in the blues. As long as more employees get the blues, it will blend with the yellow and we'll be back to green in no time. Right as rain!Mr Slipperynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515247115132134144.post-73277510596700124272023-04-20T17:43:25.712-07:002023-04-20T17:43:25.712-07:00The Fed will do its bit to flatten the Fight for 1...The Fed will do its bit to flatten the Fight for 15.Who Struck Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06359715705053814488noreply@blogger.com