This is a chart of the growth in those not working (those not in labor force plus those unemployed). It uses the change over the previous three months and then annualizes that change to show the annual rate. The shaded area represents our last recession. The trend line is a 4th order polynomial.
Once again, if accurately predicting the future using past data was this trivial, I would certainly find more profitable ways to spend my time than filling blogspace with my thoughts, lol.
However, that being said:
Exit light, enter night?
See Also:
Not in Labor Force (Musical Tribute)
Not in Labor Force, Part 2
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
Current Employment Statistics (CES)
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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