Real weekly wages continue to climb which is no doubt helping to "fuel" inflationary pressure. The shaded area represents the last economic contraction.
Apparently we aren't allowed to have a recession any more. We have reached another "permanent plateau" of prosperity. Hurray!
In other news (a true story), my girlfriend has a new job. Apparently the job market is still doing very well here in the Seattle area. She was offered more than they originally indicated (she didn't even haggle) AND they gave her a contingent offer. From what I can tell, they didn't want to lose her to the competition so made an offer based on her background check coming back clean. In other words, stop looking for work! We're not quite ready to hire you yet but we will! (I'm happy for her. The people seem nice. It seems a good place to work from what she says. Whew!)
You'd think with anecdotal evidence like that, we could afford to keep interest rates high enough to put a clamp on inflation and I'd be far less pessimistic about our future. Unfortunately, I think we're all painfully aware by now that the housing market can't even remotely take the strain of higher interest rates.
Meanwhile...
This is a chart of the sales of "Retail and Food Services, total" adjusted by inflation and the population. Looks a bit "peaky" to me, but what do I know?
And lastly...
That's real monetary growth that apparently isn't even the least bit inflationary. Talk about prosperity. We're growing it yet again too! Woohoo! Mere words can barely contain my sarcasm. In fact, if the government printed several trillion dollars and gave them directly to me, I'd promise to bury MOST of it in my backyard too. I simply don't need that many canned goods. If I bury the money then it can't drive up the price of goods for other people. See? No inflation! Win win! Let's just hope everyone else continues to think like I do though, especially the Chinese with their massive US dollar reserves (or perhaps even American retirees who aren't all that concerned about long-term inflation, yet).
See Also:
Real Wages v.2
Money, Money, Money
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
BLS: Employment
BLS: Consumer Price Indexes (CPI)
St. Louis Fed: MZM
St. Louis Fed: Population
Census: RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Wow, if your girl friend gets wind of that load of faint praise your toast, history, or both. I hope she doesn't read this blog.
ReplyDeleteFaint praise?
ReplyDeleteNah. I assure you I am sincere. She made a good impression on them apparently and it was clear they wanted her to work there.
They called Friday night and left a message for her. She called me as I was out of town. She was worried that it was a rejection. I told her that if they called her and said they'd really like her to contact them either Friday or Monday then it was most likely a job offer. What company would push you to call back right away just to tell you that you didn't get the job? ;)
That being said, a few years ago she got laid off and it took a lot longer to find work.
And lastly, she really needed the new job. The former employer hasn't even given her a final paycheck yet nor have they informed the unemployment office that she's been laid off. Talk about rude. There's been no income at all this month because of it. Further, she can't even prove she doesn't work there. She was handed absolutely no termination paperwork of any kind (back in September). What a nightmare.
Further, although her boss said he'd be giving her a glowing recommendation, that's a bit tough when nobody answers the phone.
I should mention that they really did make a contingent offer based on her background check coming back clean. No kidding.
ReplyDeleteHad I been joking about that I could certainly understand why you'd think I'd be in SERIOUS trouble with my girlfriend, lol.