The shaded area represents our last economic contraction.
This is a closeup look of my last chart showing retail sales excluding gasoline stations, food and beverage stores, and food service and drinking places.
The trendline is a 4th order polynomial, and represents just one possible look at the trend out of many.
See Also:
Gasoline Station Sales
Trendline Disclaimer
Source Data:
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly Retail Sales
St. Louis Fed: Population: Mid-Month
St. Louis Fed: Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers: All Items
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Update: There was an error in my CPI adjustment for gasoline (I wasn't adjusting it!) and it has been fixed. Sorry about that. The conclusions remain the same though.
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