As in the past, employment opportunities for retail salespersons are expected to be good because of the need to replace the large number of workers who transfer to other occupations or leave the labor force each year. In addition, many new jobs will be created for retail salespersons as businesses seek to expand operations and enhance customer service. Employment is expected to grow about as fast as average for all occupations through the year 2014, reflecting rising retail sales stemming from a growing population.
That's certainly some good news. I sure hope the "as in the past" model continues to work.
The shaded areas represent economic contractions.
What's going on? Why is it peaking like that and seemingly heading down into the abyss? It is starting to look like what happened to farming and manufacturing jobs when technology and outsourcing appeared.
Perhaps nonstore retail sales growth explains some of that.
That's an inflation-adjusted 5.2% annual growth (0.423% per month) per person. It is starting to get quite the appetite.
$10.7 billion sales (2006)
$770,000 in sales per employee
It might be a productivity miracle, but it isn't an employment miracle. Further, I wouldn't want to be a brick and mortar forced to compete with it (and those like it) right now. It is sneaking up on the brick and mortars just like globalization snuck up on Detroit, not that I'd pay 125 times earnings for any retailer heading into a possible consumer recession, but hey, maybe that's just me. As a side note, just how are Detroit's consumers holding up these days?
Sears' riches may be lay in the ground-Barron's
Bill Ackman, whose hedge fund Pershing Square recently bought 5 million shares, has calculated that the Sears' U.S. retail real estate at just $8.5 billion of its total $20 billion enterprise value, Barron's said.
Better extract that value soon. The clock's ticking. Real estate is in a slump and the Internet continues to grow exponentially, just like clockwork.
Jobs of the Future, Part 1
Jobs of the Future, Part 2
Automation and Inequality
U.S. Census Bureau: Nonstore Retailers
St. Louis Fed: Employment Situation
St. Louis Fed: Population Data
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.