Exports are picking up. The trend line is a 3rd order polynomial.
Although our imports slowed dramatically, our exports picked up. The overall traffic is hanging in there.
Our weakened dollar is working to improve the trade deficit. This shows the trade in terms of actual loaded containers (but not the price of the contents).
Here's our fastest growing exports (in items of $500 million or more) from August to September (change from previous month, not annualized) as seen in Exhibit 7 of September's FT900: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report.
Cotton, raw: 59%
Chemicals-fertilizer: 25%
Corn: 23%
Artwork, antiques, stamps, etc.: 19%
Soybeans: 18%
Wheat: 15%
That looks very inflationary to me (at least for us as shown in our future CPI). However, here's the list at the other end of the spectrum.
Nonmonetary gold: -21%
Nonferrous metals, other: -18%
Chemicals, inorganic: -13%
Jewelry, etc: -9%
Telecommunications equipment: -8%
Civilian aircraft: -7%
That looks very deflationary. Why are gold and nonferrous metals (copper is a vital industrial metal) leading the list? What's telecommunications doing on the list? Might be time to check the headlines for telecommunications.
Income-hungry Europe investors switch to telecoms
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Investors are moving out of the European banking sector and into telecom stocks in an effort to keep yield levels high and safe in current volatile market conditions, fund managers and portfolio strategists say.
So let me get this straight. Investors presumably lost money in the banking sector by chasing high yields and safety. They are now piling into telecom stocks for high yields and safety. Perhaps high yields and safety are not compatible with each other. Just a crazy theory of course.
Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
U.S. Census Bureau: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
The G20 group of leading industrial and emerging economies urged more flexibility in the currencies of countries with large current account surpluses
ReplyDeleteIn their communique following this weekend's meeting here the G20 agreed that an orderly unwinding of global imbalances is a "shared responsibility", involving among, other things, "greater exchange rate flexibility in a number of surplus countries".
China, which is crucially part of the G20, was not mentioned by name, but its currency policy has been the biggest source of tension in currency markets at a time when the value of the US dollar has fallen heavily.
While the Chinese yuan has barely budged, other currencies like the euro, the Canadian dollar and the commodity currencies have all surged on foreign exchange markets in recent weeks and months.
The fortunes of the dollar, which has shed around 30 pct of its value in the last three years on a trade-weighted basis, and the resulting strains on the world's currency system was a key element in this week's discussions even though it was not directly mentioned in the communique.
China's currency policy has been at the centre of most discussions about what needs to be done in currency markets and the country's representatives are likely to have been pressed again to increase the yuan's flexibility.
Another day another communique on the Chinese Yuan. It's their currency it the rest of the world problem, seems like I've heard that before:-)
Kevin
"They are now piling into telecom stocks for high yields and safety."
ReplyDeleteI don't know about high yields and safety Mark but with gasoline in the US more the likely to exceed $4 a gallon next year maybe part of the bet here is less business travel and more video conferencing.
Kevin
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteThat is an idea so crazy it just might work - YIELD and RISK are positively correlated - stunning to many, I am sure! ;-)
energyecon
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteThat is an idea so crazy it just might work - YIELD and RISK are positively correlated - stunning to many, I am sure! ;-)
energyecon
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteSorry for the dupe - digging into those stats myself now - the LA port breaks out inbound empty vs loaded - which is most comparable to the Long Beach inbound numbers?
TIA,
energyecon
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteJust looked at the 2003-3Q2007 combined LA and LB inbound numbers (LA using inbound loaded only) - interesting that 2004 - 2006 the cargo growth over the first 3 quarters ranges from 4.5% to 12.7% AND YoY the 3Q2007 growth rate is -5.2% from 3Q2006.
Also, from 2004-2006 the Q4 growth rate ran -0.6% to -2.0% lower than the 3Q total growth rate...
energyecon
Mark -
ReplyDeleteGreat post & analysis!
jus me
Thanks for finding the import/export data. I appreciate that you always cite your sources.
ReplyDeleteBy picking to report MoM changes in exports, you ran into extremely seasonal variations on the agriculture products, as when a particular crop comes to market.
The year to date comparisons are available on the same table (Exhibit 7) and may lead to better conclusions re trends.
Kevin,
ReplyDeleteI don't know about high yields and safety Mark but with gasoline in the US more the likely to exceed $4 a gallon next year maybe part of the bet here is less business travel and more video conferencing.
Cisco warned but is buying back their stock.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/16/cisco-buyback-closer-markets-equity-cx_af_1116markets43.html?partner=yahootix
Cisco is facing problems though. The company's third-quarter results revealed that big customers, like Wall Street banks and auto markets, are slowing their information technology spending. A prolonged slowdown in spending from enterprise customers would have severe effects in the tech sector.
Here's 2001.
Stocks Soar on Cisco Outlook
http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/872821
Stocks soared Friday after Cisco Systems said business is stabilizing and reaffirmed its outlook.
Stock price on August 24, 2001: $18.25
Stock price on September 27, 2001: $11.24
Stock price on October 8, 2002: $8.60
That was when they said things were okay. I have to wonder how bad things are when they actually say things are bad.
Hey, just asking. I have no crystal ball.
energyecon,
ReplyDeleteI use the loaded numbers (and ignore the empties).
jus me,
Thanks!
picosec,
ReplyDeleteExhibit 7 uses seasonally adjusted numbers, so in theory the effects of seasonality would mostly be missing (in theory anyway, not that I know exactly what they did to adjust the numbers).
Your suggestion of using the year to date numbers is certainly a good one. In fact, I did do it. I just didn't post the results. Some of the things growing year to date stopped growing recently. Take telecommunications equipment for example. It was up year to date in a major way, but the last month was brutal.
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteQuick question and a beef with the Port of Houston:
Question - Any idea when the LA numbers for October come out? (just hoping)
Beef - Can't find broken out stats on Port of Houston site dangit!
energyecon
One more thing - the quarterly YoY changes for the LA/LB total inbound for Q1-Q3 2007 vs Q1-Q3 2006 -
ReplyDeleteQ1 '07 vs '06 = 7.7%
Q2 '07 vs '06 = -0.1%
Q3 '07 vs '06 = -2.5%
energyecon
energyecon,
ReplyDeleteI'm still trying to find current information on the Port of New York's traffic.
http://www.panynj.gov/DoingBusinessWith/seaport/html/trade_statistics.html
I'm not going to waste my time looking back at April's data. That's ancient history.
Savannah would be nice too, especially since that seems to be where the growth is. Not much luck there either though.
This was released on September 24, 2007.
http://www.gaports.com/corporate/Communications/PressReleases/tabid/379/Default.aspx
Georgia’s Ports Report 30 Percent Growth in TEUs for August
LA numbers come out on or around the 15th of the month (this month is requiring extra patience apparently).
ReplyDeletePatience is a trait I need to cultivate [sighs]...
ReplyDeleteThe thing that strikes me about that Q3 2007 YoY number is that this is when the ramp up for the holidays is supposed to be occurring, no?
energyecon
energyecon,
ReplyDeleteSome of it might be that other ports are picking up at least some of the slack.
Some of it might be a switch to smaller more expensive gifts. We don't know the value of the items in the containers (electronics vs. clothing).
Some of it might be a switch to gift card giving (meaning the product doesn't need to be in the store until after Christmas).
I'm not all that optimistic though, the inbound traffic really dried up and the package delivers are saying we're in a rough patch.
StagMark,
ReplyDeleteThe other ports would be very interesting to see detailed numbers on as well, the regional picture might be very revealing. There is always so much information lost with national aggregation of data.
energyecon