The shaded area represents our last economic contraction.
This chart shows retail sales excluding gasoline stations, food and beverage stores, and food service and drinking places (per capita and adjusted for inflation).
The trendline is a 4th order polynomial and simply represents what my eyeball seems to see.
It continues to look like it is rolling over to me, for what that's worth.
See Also:
Retail Sales (2000 to Present)
Trendline Disclaimer
Source Data:
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly Retail Sales
St. Louis Fed: Population: Mid-Month
St. Louis Fed: Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers: All Items
BLS: Consumer Price Index
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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