Thursday, May 1, 2008

Cycle Killers, by James Cramer

March 18, 2002
Cycle Killers

Oh, and one other thing. Don't forget to sell them after they have doubled. Cyclical nirvana never lasted long, even in the golden age of U.S. manufacturing. Don't overstay your welcome.

Caterpillar TRIPLED. What did he tell us to do next?

May 31, 2007


Um, commodity costs, ah, yeah commodities should, um, keep going, uh, you know commodities won't, you know, are all unsustainable, they've moved up, copper is unsustainable, and uh, so therefore, and oil is unsustainable and so therefore you should sell CAT. Again, very, very sound argument but wrong. And when I say wrong I mean I think that will be wrong....

My goal is to be right and there's always going to be a lot wrong when you try to be right.

For what it is worth, I had a relatively large position in Caterpillar from 2000 to 2004. It was very good to me. I bought long before he told us to buy and I did sell after it doubled.

This post inspired by MAB.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousMay 1, 2008 at 12:07 PM

    Stag,

    Let's assume an "investor" had listened to Cramer's advice on 3/18/02 and bought 100 shares each of CAT, DOW, IP, AA & TYC and decided to sell after each stock had doubled. Cyclical boom and all.

    CAT: $29/sh to $58/sh ($82/sh today, but we sold after a double. Whoohoo! Hit the bid).

    Dow: $33/sh to $40/sh (not a double - yet).

    AA: $37/sh to $34/sh (it's ok my house has really increased in value or uhm price).

    IP: $42/sh to $26/sh (Honey, what did the neighbors sell their house for?)

    Tyc: $129/sh to $45/sh (Honey, please tell me we applied for that HELOC?)

    Grand total: $27,000 invested is worth $20,300 today (ignoring dividends, fees, taxes).

    The stock market is one of the few places where being average is better than average.

    The greatest story never told.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkMay 1, 2008 at 1:08 PM

    MAB,

    I didn't even bother to look. Great call! This calls for even more analysis, lol.

    ReplyDelete