2nd Half of Year Recovery Postponed Again

Let's work our way through the 2nd half of year ponements to date.

July 17, 2007
Who's Afraid Of China?

A gradually weakening dollar serves U.S. interests as well as those of China. The Federal Reserve is banking on a weak dollar to boost growth in demand for exports in the second half of the year. It is also good for tourism, another economic booster, and it has the salutary effect of reducing American travel overseas. “It’s the main reason why the Federal Reserve is banking on a second half recovery,” Lien said. “The path to a stronger dollar is essentially through a weaker dollar.”

May 20, 2008
Fed's Kohn says economy to start slow recovery in second half UPDATE

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. economy will probably begin a slow recovery in the second half of this year and then speed up in 2009, with the inflation threat receding, according to the Fed's number two official.

February 13, 2009
Economists' U.S. Outlook Dims

"To say 'off we go' in the second half of the year, I think that begs incredulity; I just don't buy it," he said. "It's a global thing too—trade volumes are just cratering and our exports are getting pounded. There's nowhere to hide."

Feburary 27, 2009
Fed's Rosengren sees U.S. recovery in second half

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will begin recovering in the second half of this year, but growth could stay below potential until financial markets stabilize, a top Federal Reserve policy-maker said on Friday.

March 9, 2009
Battered mining sector waits for recovery

Many analysts had initially hoped stimulus packages in China and the United States would start to show some impact in the second half of 2009, but many are now hunkering down for a longer period of weak prices.

2nd Half of 2007? Nope.
2nd Half of 2008? Nope.
2nd Half of 2009? Not likely.

The 2nd Half of 2010 is looking good though. There will always be time to pone it later if we change our minds. Why might we change our minds? Let's go back to the 2nd half of 2001 recovery and look for inspiration.

Where is it? Where is the 2001 recovery? Our debt situtation is much worse. The stock market is much lower. Our unemployment is much higher. The only reason our banking system hasn't completely collapsed is that we took on even more debt to bail it out. Overall, we're in much worse shape now than we were in 2001. No joke.

July 23, 2001
U.S.: The Past Won't Be Prologue in This Recovery

The upshot: If last year saw a new type of slowdown, then this second-half recovery may not resemble any of its predecessors.

That has got to be the understatement of the century.



I know. It's an elevator and it only goes down. - Jack Burton, Big Trouble in Little China (1986)