A Chart of Uncharted Territory

The new employment numbers were released today. Rather than just put up yet another chart of the downturn, here's one from a slightly different perspective. This chart shows the change in total employment over the previous 10 years. I have included a third order polynomial trend line as an indication of roughly what my eye sees when I look at the chart.

Is it any wonder our economy is falling apart? I'm not talking about this latest "cyclical" downturn. I'm talking about the secular downturn that has its roots in the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. You know, the era when it felt pretty good outsourcing and automating our jobs since we had tech to fall back on.

I don't know about you, but I'm really not liking the trend. Perhaps I might be a bit biased though. In addition to running an Illusion of Prosperity blog and being bearish since 2004, my girlfriend was laid off from a "recession-resistant" healthcare provider yesterday. Her missing job isn't included in the chart yet.

Perhaps more productivity miracles can save us. Maybe we just need to work smarter. Imagine how prosperous we will be in the future once we have automated and outsourced all of our jobs away.

February 6, 2009
This Jobless Recovery Will Be Agonizing

Even once the layoffs taper off, it will be a long, long time before critical sectors like autos and housing begin hiring again.

April 2, 2009
IBM Snags A Pair Of Outsourcing Deals

"The current environment is driving companies of all industries to aggressively manage their operations," said Justin Dragoo, VP for consumer products in IBM's Global Technology Services Group. The group saw revenue decline 4% in the most recent fourth quarter, but sales may be poised to rebound if more businesses come to believe that outsourcing can help them better weather the economic downturn.

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total Private Industries
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Government