Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Unexpected Certainty

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop as Jobs Evaporate (Update2)

I just can't seem to get past the headline. Who could have possibly guessed that if jobs evaporate (which we knew was happening with 100% certainty) then retail sales might drop too? This goes well beyond unexpected and into the realm of shockingly sarcastic.

Sorry for not posting much lately. I'm pretty down.

1. I've got a head cold that's been dragging on for weeks. I saw the doctor yesterday.

2. Our pet bird is having seizures. That's two trips to the vet so far.

3. Comcast claims that someone else set up an account in my girlfriend's name (identity theft).

4. My girlfriend no longer has a job (in Washington State).

5. Unemployment in Washington State jumped from a revised 8.3% in February to 9.2% in March.

Washington unemployment rate tops 9 percent

"I'm very concerned about it. It's shocking," he said. "The state's now higher than the national average. People were saying this will never happen here. The place is now a free for all unemployment wise."

Oh well, at least the Illusion of Prosperity continues to stand the test of time. I'd hate to think that I wasted all this time on bogus theories.
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17 comments:

  1. threetorchesApril 15, 2009 at 9:41 AM

    I, too, have grown tired of the constant "unexpected."

    Unemployment unexpectedly higher.
    Retail sales unexpectedly lower.
    Industrial production unexpectedly declines.
    Real wages unexpectedly fall.

    Unexpected by whom? Why do writers and newsheads keep saying it when we all expected all of it? It is like they have all been ordered to insert the word whenever they report anything remotely negative.

    But then, I expected that.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 15, 2009 at 3:24 PM

    Mark I don't know why it is but when things go to crap around my place they do it all at the same damn time. Sounds like I'm not unique to that phenomenon. Hope thing get turned around for you soon.

    Kevin

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  3. mabApril 15, 2009 at 4:50 PM

    Stag,

    Should this go in the "expected" or "unexpected" folder?

    http://www.bondbuyer.com/attachments/20090407QWOARLQW-1-040809LOCAL.pdf

    The above is long, but the summary says it all. Moody's downgraded the entire Local Government Sector in one fell swoop! I guess they are tired of being behind the curve.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stagflationary MarkApril 15, 2009 at 6:15 PM

    threetorches,

    I, too, have grown tired of the constant "unexpected."Nobody expects the American Inquisition! Amongst our weaponry are such elements as rising unemployment, falling retail sales, declining industrial production, and an almost fanatical devotion to falling real wages!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gldlyTjXk9A

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stagflationary MarkApril 15, 2009 at 6:36 PM

    Kevin,

    Mark I don't know why it is but when things go to crap around my place they do it all at the same damn time.That "around my place" wouldn't include the entire global economy by any chance would it? ;)

    Is there a mulit-level marketing campaign for bad news these days?

    I can start with home and see bad news. I can then zoom out to local, city, regional, state, country, then finally the global economy.

    Our solar system is still okay though, right? I mean there isn't a black hole headed our way at 99/100ths the speed of light or anything is there?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Stagflationary MarkApril 15, 2009 at 7:02 PM

    mab,

    From your link...

    Unprecedented Fiscal Challenges Drive Negative Outlook for Local Government RatingsI guess that means we can't turn to history books to figure out what precedented thing will happen next.

    ReplyDelete
  7. mabApril 16, 2009 at 7:37 AM

    Stag,

    Here's another unexpected certainty - ever expanding budget deficits.

    Ans here's a good one - Net Government Savings???? Oxymoronic, no?.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TGDEF

    The Bush/Obama eCONomic plan is a doosie too. I finally get it. The Government dis-saves so that the public can also dis-save. Why didn't we think of this in the past? It's a huge improvement over prior periods of Government deficits where the American public were net savers. I have total faith that continuing this plan of public AND private dis-saving should work great. We just need to get the kinks out and get people the world over to understand that debts will never be repaid. The simplicity is brilliant.

    A few observations from the above chart.

    First, Banana Republicans are NOT fiscally CONservative. Nixon, Reagan, Bush 1 & Bush 2 were all huge deficit spenders. Collectively, they pretty much account for the entire U.S. debt.

    Second, the "guns & butter" deficits seem puny to me, although I'm sure they looked big at the time.

    Third, the notion that the free market is the engine of U.S. growth is suspect. Deficit spending and inflation appear to be the engines of the U.S. eCONomy, at least since 1970 and arguably since FDR. The free market looks like it was replaced in the late 1960s & early 1970s. A free market founded on government deficit spending/grift is more apt. Reagan & Bush 1's deficit spending kicked off the 80s/90s boom. Bush 2's deficits super charged a housing boom. One would think think there has to be limits to debts though. Maybe that's why we need all these wars - Cold War, War on Drugs, War on Poverty, War on Terror, Iraq & Afghanistan Wars.

    Here's a thought. Maybe it's time to be more honest about our printing - just kidding. If you're not going to have a free market system, the appearance of a free market system is the next best thing. And it's not propaganda either. It's managing information and expectations.

    Fourth, things should get interesting once social security and medicare costs exceed receipts. The yearly surpluses are now forecast to vanish much sooner than previously thought. Another bummer.

    http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

    Finally, do you think it makes sense to stop and smell the flowers while you are being looted?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stagflationary MarkApril 16, 2009 at 9:39 AM

    mab,

    Let's try to be optimistic. I think you've made a pretty good case for our next growth engine.

    If the illusion of savings can create the illusion of a sustainable service economy, then it stands to reason that the reality of "dis-savings" can create the reality of a sustainable dis-service economy.

    I'm very bullish on our future dis-service economy. In fact, I've been dis-investing in it for nearly 5 years. I've yet to be dis-satisfied attempting to dis-tance myself from the ongoing dis-aster.

    ReplyDelete
  9. mabApril 16, 2009 at 10:08 AM

    Stag,

    I'm very bullish on our future dis-service economyMe too. Good thing our code of CONduct is different than Japan's:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshido

    Here's some dis-appointing things I've noticed - it's honorable to be dis-honorable. And it's fiscally irresponsible to be fiscally responsible.

    I really feel I'm getting the hang of the new (e)CONomy. I just wish I was able to dis-learn things more quickly. Maybe I should just let wall street secure my financial future. That's it. Wall street only hires the most dis-honest, dis-ingenuous, dis-gusting, dis-tasteful, dis-servers that money can buy.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousApril 16, 2009 at 9:01 PM

    Headline in local paper:
    "Falling prices keep inflation in check"
    Ya think?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Stagflationary MarkApril 17, 2009 at 2:47 AM

    mab,

    Here's some dis-appointing things I've noticed - it's honorable to be dis-honorable.Don't even get me started on how or why my girlfriend's former employer let her go. Honor had absolutely nothing to do with it. She was thrown under the bus by her former boss. Better her than him it seems. The death of ethics appears to be going parabolic.

    I read in Time that a rather large percentage of workers would lie about coworkers in order to keep their jobs. No wonder I'm so cynical.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Stagflationary MarkApril 17, 2009 at 2:50 AM

    Anonymous,

    Thud!

    That's just my head hitting my desk again.

    ReplyDelete
  13. mabApril 17, 2009 at 7:08 AM

    Stag,

    Expected or unexpected?

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPI?cid=127

    So many of the charts I follow have gone reverse parabolic. The debt charts would have gone reverse parabolic too absent Fed heroics.

    I just can't buy into any recovery arguments with all that terminally sick debt on life support. Even if we can temporarily reflate, I don't believe it will lead to lasting and sustainable prosperity.

    Real estate is the biggest well of private credit and the well has been poisoned. What a mess.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Stagflationary MarkApril 17, 2009 at 2:29 PM

    mab,

    "So many of the charts I follow have gone reverse parabolic."

    March 13, 2009(Reverse) Parabolic: The Philadelphia Banking Indexhttp://www.tradersnarrative.com/reverse-parabolic-the-philadelphia-banking-index-2355.html

    "The chart above would suggest that the exhaustion point for the beleaguered US financial sector is near."

    Using hindsight, it was a good call. The reverse parabolic financial sector uncrashed.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BKX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

    Here's the rub. I sold precious metals in 2006 when they started turning parabolic. They then crashed as expected. After they crashed, they went parabolic again though and are now higher than when I sold. That was unexpected (at least by me).

    Similarly, it is possible that the entire economy can go reverse parabolic, uncrash, then go reverse parabolic again.

    I'm fine on the sidelines, permanently perhaps. I think we're smack-dab in Alan Greenspan's Age of Turbulence. He should know. He helped get us here. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  15. mabApril 20, 2009 at 4:02 AM

    Stag,

    Check out this "Low Budget" tribute:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1cOCeWpCjw

    Everytime the Brits end up here they put their currency on a diet.

    Selling Britain by the pound.

    ReplyDelete
  16. mabApril 20, 2009 at 4:30 AM

    Stag,

    I meant to link the following in my previous comment:

    http://www.tulane.edu/~gbernst/econww2.htm

    ReplyDelete
  17. Stagflationary MarkApril 20, 2009 at 6:10 AM

    mab,

    Interesting link. It was a good read although I must say that parts seem to have a certain brainwashing tone.

    "With the advent of prosperity in the 1950s, expansion eventually led to a balance of payments problem, as Britons imported more goods than they could pay for with exports (visible and invisible)."

    In my opinion, the advent of real prosperity should not lead to ANY problems. The same cannot be said of an "illusion of prosperity" though. How can real prosperity possibly put us in a situation where we can't pay our bills?

    In the real world, if a plant needs a cup of water to survive then it would surely die if presented with an IOU for a gallon. The plant would look very prosperous on paper though and this would no doubt be brought up in the eulogy. Sigh.

    I'm really starting to feel like that plant by the way. My prosperity is sitting almost entirely in IOUs, but hey, at least they are backed by a printing press long term. Sigh.

    Here's yet another slogan.

    Adventing our way into a prosperity hole since at least the 1970s!

    ReplyDelete