Stimulus was applied. Stocks rose into the air. Many seem convinced that stocks will keep going up. Who knows?
Please don't read too much into this. Almost anything can happen in a world filled with cartoon stimulus and/or cartoon physics.
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
Yahoo: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average
Yuck! Math!
ReplyDeleteGYSC,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ893JdhkRE
The number 6, that's what I'm talking about. Once you have mastered it the rest just sort of fall into place. ;)
Mark,
ReplyDeleteevery iteration of the stairs had the number "1" as the first step and the last step was "6" whic makes.......16!!!!!!!!!!!! Perfecto salad!
Stag,
ReplyDeletePerhaps Bernanke's stimulus physics are based on a variant of traditional monetary "escape" velocity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scharnhorst_effect
Under Bernanke's QE, things are no longer "relative" to what they once were. It's an interesting CONcept.
The debt gravitational field is very powerful indeed. Traditional theory holds that once the event horizon of a debt black hole is breached, escape is impossible.
However, in the extreme, Bernanke's trash for cash anti-deflation fields can actually reduce the debt interest gravity vector to zero. But only by destoying ALL debt by CONverting it to cash. Of course at that point, debt ceases to be debt in the traditional sense.
Weird. Buying toilet paper is definitely the safe play.
Phs ed, not physics for me.
GYSC & mab,
ReplyDelete16!!!!!!!!!!!!
Perhaps Bernanke's stimulus physics are based on a variant of traditional monetary "escape" velocity.
Perhaps Bernanke's math is based on turning 5 into 14!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faLSbreXHcg
Mark -
ReplyDeleteoh Maarrk -
I'm here to nag you.
Thank you for posting the disclaimer in the graph ("One possible outcome among many")
And for saying "Please don't read too much into this"
But really ....
Never use a polynomial fit for extrapolation.
Polynomial fits are excellent for interpolation. They are basically always wrong for extrapolation.
Doesn't depend much on the data set, it's the nature of polynomials!
As comedy, I guess it's OK.
But leaving an R^2 number on the graph lends an unjustified aura of
respectability to what is basically a joke.
Sigh. Sorry to give you a hard time.
I think your blog is excellent.
But polynomial extrapolations ...grr... they get under my skin.
-jus me
jus me,
ReplyDeleteIt was 4 disclaimers! Don't forget the Trend Line Disclaimer link and the "cartoon physics" reference. ;)
To me, ALL fortune telling trend lines that claim to see into the future are a joke. So yes, this too was a joke.
That said, the 2nd order polynomial IS the polynomial that describes an object's path under the force of gravity. It wasn't completely chosen randomly out of a hat.
It would be a miracle if the stock market followed that red line. Even if it was a 100% accurate analogy for the "gravity" of the situation, the market would add additional downside forces in sheer panic once the downward trend became established.
You know that. I know that. Hopefully everyone else does too. :)