Monday, March 8, 2010

Five Long-Term Inflationary Apparel Trends



Click to enlarge.

Here's a look at the seasonally adjusted apparel index on a log chart. Constant exponential growth shows up as a straight line. My eye sees 5 trends. I suspect we won't like the 6th long-term trend, but who really knows?

I hoarded quite a bit of apparel in recent years. I'm not all that fashionable. I'm all about comfort. I have a ton of clothes in reserve now. Most say "Made in India" on them. You can see the deflation in the chart as apparel was one of the first things to be outsourced. In order to get further deflation, one would think that we'd need to outsource the outsourcing. Who is going to make t-shirts cheaper than India though? What if the global economy turns protectionist someday? Would I still be able to buy a high quality large tall t-shirt for just $10? I did not want to risk it.

We take $10 t-shirts for granted in this country. I can say this. It would take me a lot more than $10 to make one myself, especially if one factored in typical American labor costs.

I also have a lot of socks in reserve. I bought my favorite Gold Toe brand at Wal-Mart. It saved me a lot of money doing that. My local Wal-Mart no longer sells them. They switched to a cheaper brand. I do not regret the decision to hoard them.

Here's the socks sold at Macy's. They want $21 for 6 pairs. That's roughly twice as much as I paid.

Gold Toe Premier Classic 6 Pack Crew Athletic Socks

I love this sock. No other brand is acceptable to me. I'd pay the $21 today if forced. Fortunately, I don't have to. I may not need to buy socks again for 30 years. That's how many I have, lol.

That said, the tennis shoes I hoarded at Costco have not gone up even so much as a penny. Some of my hoard is performing well. Some is not performing so well. To be perfectly honest, I hope that my hoard was a complete waste of time long-term. I do not root for higher prices.

See Also:
Four Long-Term Inflationary Energy Trends
Three Long-Term Inflationary Food Trends
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: CPI-U: Apparel
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14 comments:

  1. OtepotiMarch 9, 2010 at 2:18 AM

    I feel your wife's pain.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 3:08 AM

    Otepoti,

    Hahaha! I'm not married. I do have a girlfriend of many years though. She puts up with my eccentric ways. I know. Hard to believe!

    From your profile...

    If you were a pirate, how would you avoid laughing when saying 'poop deck'?

    VERY amusing answer! :)

    P.S. My girlfriend loves Gattaca too.

    ReplyDelete
  3. deariemeMarch 9, 2010 at 6:06 AM

    In the mid 60s I bought a lot of socks of a brand called Indestructible. And so it proved - I eventually threw them out when my wife observed that I'd reached the age when my feet were broadening and so they didn't fit any more.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 6:33 AM

    dearieme,

    Barring a house fire or thievery, I expected socks to be a sure thing! You've popped my sock bubble!! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. watchtowerMarch 9, 2010 at 9:34 AM

    Watchtower's 101 uses for an old sock:

    1. Mittens for kids, these were great after you had already gotten your gloves wet in the snow.

    2. Cleaning rag, i.e. oil changes, waxing the vehicles, wiping down the guns, etc, etc, etc.

    3. This was a good makeshift marble bag when I was a kid, and I find myself even today using an old sock for miscellaneous things that I need to carry (provided the holes have been sewn up).

    OK, maybe I can't think of 101 things that I'm using an old sock for, but it can't be denied that they are about as handy when worn out as when they were new!

    ReplyDelete
  6. OtepotiMarch 9, 2010 at 11:51 AM

    When you open Mark's Melamine Manufactory, I beg you - don't sell any to Chinese dairy farmers.

    And your GF, who goes for geeks and Gattaca, - she's a keeper.

    Has she sequenced your jeans yet?

    [Waves to dearieme, who pops up everywhere Otepoti goes.]

    ReplyDelete
  7. EconomicDisconnectMarch 9, 2010 at 2:49 PM

    I can sequence genes but not jeans!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 2:50 PM

    watchtower,

    Use 102:

    Socks can be used as a dog leash (some dogs anyway).

    My last dog loved socks. I could take her for a walk holding one end and she'd keep the other end in her mouth.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 2:52 PM

    Otepoti & GYSC,

    I don't do sequined jeans! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  10. EconomicDisconnectMarch 9, 2010 at 3:43 PM

    You strike me as an acid washed man.

    ReplyDelete
  11. mabMarch 9, 2010 at 3:59 PM

    You strike me as an acid washed man.

    Oh how I miss Chess King.

    http://the80srule.blogspot.com/2006/01/and-what-of-chess-king.html

    I probably should have hoarded a few Members Only jackets too.

    They just don't make em like they used to.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 4:15 PM

    I'm going to scare you all.

    I mostly wear dark gray fleece pants in the winter and shorts in the summer. I combine this with a solid color t-shirt. My girlfriend calls it my uniform, lol.

    The pants are super comfortable, very warm, shed rain, and are practically indestructible. Great for the outdoors, especially in the winter. I got a bunch of them on sale at the Sports Authority a few years. Love them.

    I'm having difficulty posting this response. Error messages keep appearing.

    ReplyDelete
  13. OtepotiMarch 9, 2010 at 4:33 PM

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydq3bsh

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  14. Stagflationary MarkMarch 9, 2010 at 5:12 PM

    Otepoti,

    From your link...

    In the Pacific Northwest the attitude towards weather is "If I waited until it was sunny I'd never leave the house."

    Hahaha! That's where I live. I don't wear sandals though, so I am not at risk of doing a sandal/sock faux pas. That's not to say I am faux pas free though. Live and let live I say!

    My preferred foot covering is actually nothing. I'm barefoot right now.

    ReplyDelete