This is a chart showing the S&P 500 index divided by 1/1000th of the total number of loaded cargo containers moving in and out of the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach over the years. (I have seasonally adjusted the cargo data.)
I joke that this last bubble was a rational bubble because nobody could see it coming. It was some sort of stealth bubble apparently. In fact, the chart above still can't see it. The following chart can see it though. Big time.
They say never try to catch a falling knife. In my opinion, investors of today are trying to catch a knife thrown at a ceiling. Good luck figuring out how high that might be. I'll pass.
See Also:
Seasonally Adjusted Port Traffic (Musical Tribute)
Source Data:
Yahoo: S&P 500 Historical Prices
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
St. Louis Fed: Nonperforming Total Loans
Stag,
ReplyDelete"They say never try to catch a falling knife. In my opinion, investors of today are trying to catch a knife thrown at a ceiling. Good luck figuring out how high that might be. I'll pass."
This is a fantastic argument to use whenever some blasted bull/fool who claims to have invested in the stock market "at the bottom" in March of last year posts their fantasy gains.
Unless they can link me/us up to some posts showing their convictions at the time (the bottom) it is nothing but illusion.
G.H.,
ReplyDeleteThis is a fantastic argument to use whenever some blasted bull/fool who claims to have invested in the stock market "at the bottom" in March of last year posts their fantasy gains.
Claims to have invested? It is almost like you don't believe what an anonymous Internet poster may or may not have made? Shocking! Shocking I tell you!!
When I see a stock crash on one day and a trader on Yahoo's message board tells me that he sold the previous day just in time, who am I going to believe? Him or my gut?
Here's cheers to guts baby!!
ReplyDeleteTrouble is, the forums I frequent require (I mean REQUIRE) absolute proof when you object to someone's fantasy "hindsight" claim.
Unless you can dredge up some actual posts from the past that show confliction between today's claims and yesterday's "claimed" convictions you have nothing.
I occasionally score a victory but mind you it's hard researched and fought. Usually though, it's not worth the effort.
It's not a matter of not believing anonymous posters. It's a matter of pinning their asses to the wall.
I'm working on just such a man as we speak. I'm a little hesitant to post links to the forum because doing so could implicate me in a conspiracy of using much smarter bloggers material without source to state my case!
Not that I would actually do that of course ;)
I'm not sure why you think the last S&P bubble was "rational" - the money for it was coming from this which is less rational than anything I've ever seen.
ReplyDeletebobn,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why you think the last S&P bubble was "rational"...
I said...
I joke that this last bubble was a rational bubble because nobody could see it coming.
I joke.