This is where we are now.
Damn it! It seems I forgot to factor in "hot air" friction! The trajectory is clearly coming up a bit short of the original estimate.
Once again, please don't read too much into this. Almost anything can happen in a world filled with cartoon stimulus and/or cartoon physics. I'm certainly not going to short the stock market based on these silly charts. I'm more than happy just watching from the sidelines.
The vast majority of the time the stock market does not use or need cartoon physics to function properly. It might be different this time though. Who knows? Further, it would be preposterous to argue that the stock market could ever come down. Everyone knows that it only goes up, again.
Speaking of cartoon physics, is Capital One Financial possibly rolling over again or is it just me? I was never given the gift of technical analysis. I can never see into the future. It might seem like it at times, but that's probably just my gut talking. It is currently ready to rumble.
See Also:
Stimulus Physics
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
Yahoo: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average
Stag,
ReplyDeleteFun post! It looks like the time of impact got moved up. Remember, it's not the actual fall that kills you, it's the sudden stop!
Couple of points.
1. Perhaps you should have said: Let's get ready to CRUMBLE.
2. Bailing out Capital One Financial was a crime against humanity. I'm might file a motion at "The" Hague. What with the "The" anyway?
3. Maybe cartoon physics is to be expected in an eCONomy that uses imaginary and irrational numbers. If only our eCONomic actors couldn't get hurt like the cartoon characters. Nah, just kiddin. If nnobody got hurt, it would take all the fun out of it. This kind of thing is never funny until someone loses an eye.
mab,
ReplyDelete1. Perhaps you should have said: Let's get ready to CRUMBLE.
Gallows humor for the win! LOL!
mab,
ReplyDeleteIt just dawned on me that Andy Xie thought 2012 would be the year that things fell apart again.
Maybe we are using the same cartoon s(t)imulation model.
Mark,
ReplyDeletea couple of posts ago I knew what you meant about the TIPS I was just messing with you!
2012 is far away, I think 2011 still has some real drama to unfold.
I was lucky enough to catch Rick Santelli on CNBC today as he was offering some predictions on what might come to pass in the bond market next week.
ReplyDeleteHe mentioned that he would be working on Good Friday (although the bond markets would be trading a half day) and that he would be reporting the employment numbers for March.
As he put it, something to the effect, the emp. number would have a temporary worker component, a census component, and a "snow" component (LOL), all combining to give us a "shocking" jobs number to the upside.
As a result he expects a very good chance that rates shoot up on this news after the holiday weekend.
As I currently hold VWITX and VFIIX I am watching these developments closely. I have seen a ~1% drop in VWITX just over the last three trading days and should this drop not be followed by a reversal early next week I'm out to the safety of sidelines in these funds for the time being. They have been very good to me since the '08 meltdown with very little risk.
If any of you are holding bonds or bond funds I just thought Santelli's remarks were worth noting.
Although personally I wouldn't give Pimco's Bill Gross the time of day, some people do like him and this week he said that the almost three decade long bond market rally may be ending. FWIW.
G.H.,
ReplyDelete"I was lucky enough to catch Rick Santelli on CNBC today..."
I like him. He's not always right (nobody is) but at least he offers informed commentary. He's also willing to say what he really thinks. I respect that. I especially enjoyed the time he heckled Jim Cramer to his face right there on CNBC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGkrNJ19DSU
I'm not sure what to make of Bill Gross. The rising tide has been lifting his bond boats for three decades. That said, I did see that he thought the rally may be ending. The "Bond King" is at least self-aware of his new clothes. Of course, he could be wrong. I thought the rally was over in 2004. It wasn't though.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=my
As for bonds, I've sold what I planned to sell. I continue to wait on the sidelines for a better TIP price.
GYSC,
ReplyDelete"2012 is far away, I think 2011 still has some real drama to unfold."
It's going to be tough to get over the humps.
You don't want no drama!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd9D9jOzSWs