Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Caterpillar



January 22, 2000
Caterpillar Earnings Off 21%, Clouding the Outlook for This Year

The company, which has repeatedly warned of earnings slowdowns in the last year...

I bought Caterpillar on August 10, 2000 @ $35.44 per share.
I sold Caterpillar on July 8, 2004 @ $76.85 per share.

There was a 2-1 stock split on July 14, 2005.

August 24, 2010
Caterpillar Sees No Slowdown

In meetings with analysts, new Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) CEO Doug Oberhelman made extraordinarily bullish comments. Not only does he not see a double-dip recession happening, he sees signs of renewed vigor stirring in the economy and robust growth for Caterpillar.

Extraordinarily bullish comments and renewed vigor stirring in the economy notwithstanding, I think I shall pass at these prices.

For the sake of Caterpillar investors, let's hope there isn't a monumental property bubble and/or fixed-asset investment bubble in China.

February 18, 2010
The Building Bubble in China

There's a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble under way. - James Chanos

Source Data:
Yahoo: Caterpillar Historical Prices
St. Louis Fed: CPI
at

5 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 25, 2010 at 8:04 AM

    Caterpillar does how much business in China?

    In my largely anecdotal experience of looking out the window at huge parks of earth movers while in China, I think I mainly saw Japanese brands. Its amazing to see probably 1,000-2,000 idle backhoes sitting around. Lots of expensive inventory.

    Does Cat do much mining equipment?

    Does it do more agricultural?

    Coba

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stagflationary MarkAugust 25, 2010 at 9:19 AM

    Coba,

    Yahoo: Caterpillar Business Summary

    I haven't been following them that closely since 2004, but it would seem at risk if you believe in Chanos's iron ore bubble theory.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stagflationary MarkAugust 25, 2010 at 9:25 AM

    From 2008...

    Caterpillar Tilts Toward China

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousAugust 25, 2010 at 2:48 PM

    Thanks for the links. So what I saw might be CAT designs under Japanese joint venture designs or whatever.

    Plus, those machines will get sold second-hand and plunge the pricing even lower.

    Coba

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stagflationary MarkAugust 25, 2010 at 3:23 PM

    Thanks for the anecdotal backhoe evidence. I know what it was like during our downturn in my area. I saw all kinds of parked construction equipment gathering dust.

    Here's the risk.

    Causes of the Great Depression

    With future profits looking poor, capital investment and construction slowed or completely ceased.

    ReplyDelete