Click to enlarge.
I've used the USGS to generate the data in black from 1900 to 2008 and the median value in blue. The current data point uses data from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation and Kitco.
September 15, 2010
Soros calls gold 'the ultimate bubble'
"Gold is the ultimate bubble," Soros said at an event in New York sponsored by Reuters. "It is certainly not safe."
I'm really trying to show that risk in the chart above (as I have also done with commodities such as aluminum, cattle, and salt).
December 28, 2010
One Investment Strategy for Q1 2011: Cash, Baby, All the Way
That everyone believes gold and silver have no downside makes me skeptical. If you are a buy-and-forget investor in precious metals, fine, but the market likes to destroy some wealth when the trade gets lopsided. The time to buy anything, gold and silver included, is after everyone who believed there was no possible downside has their head handed to them on a platter.
It's a good read for contrarians. He manages to cover many of the bases (from the recovery to China to central bank sure things). I prefer I-Bonds (and TIPS) over cash long-term, but that's mostly just a personal preference.
You will also note that I continue to lean deflationary in the short-term as seen in the upper left hand corner of my blog. That doesn't mean I think it is sure to happen. I simply believe that it is more likely than most seem to think, especially if Jim Chanos is right about China.
December 30, 2010
The Hindu Business Line: Cement industry will be weighed down by excess supply
2011 could be a challenging year for cement manufacturers. Though demand for cement will reach higher double-digit growth, it will be insufficient to absorb the entire supply. Rising input prices and excess capacity (and resultant pricing pressures) will continue to depress margins for cement manufacturers.
December 14, 2010
U.S. Shoppers Drive Asian Shares Higher, Unsexy Cement Hot Commodity in China
In China investors bet money on cement companies after word spread that the government plans to build 10 million low-cost apartments over the next year. That's 72% more than the number constructed this year, according to Xinhua, and that means more of those slab buildings emerging from shrouds of bamboo scaffolding in many Chinese cities. Today Fujian Cement and Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement both hit the 10% daily limit.
Just keep betting money right to the end. You've got to handy it to those savvy Chinese.
Source Data:
USGS: Historical Mineral Statistics
Kitco: Gold
massDOT: Price Adjustments (cement)
mab,
ReplyDeleteGold is so much more than just money! We need to think outside the box.
Here's what we know.
1. Gold is denser and more resistant to the elements than cement.
2. Gold shoes can therefore keep people underwater even better than cement shoes.
3. Jimmy Hoffa was last seen in 1975.
4. Every 30 years or so gold investors make a killing.
5. Geraldo Rivera did not find Hoffa's shoes within Al Capone's vault. Coincidence?
As a bonus reason to invest in the barbaric relic, CEO golden parachutes within large investment banks have been modified due to the new economy. Should angry shareholders and/or taxpayers actually make it into the boardroom, the CEO may resign by simply jumping out the window and pulling the ripcord of a parachute made entirely of gold. He or she will then plummet to "safety" in the luxury that only gold can offer.
Okay, maybe I made up that last part but we can dream, can't we?
He or she will then plummet to "safety" in the luxury that only gold can offer.<<
ReplyDeleteI guess goldbugs can take comfort in that if the unexpected, should unexpectedly happen. At about the third floor level, they can feel secure that nothing has happened yet, anyway.
Of course, we have the following from a geometric expert that this gold thing is for real and the unexpected could never really unexpectedly happen.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/dec292010.html
How much more do you need to know--this is cutting edge stuff!!
Dang your imagery is gonna haunt me :).
Happy New Year Mark!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDelete"I guess goldbugs can take comfort in that if the unexpected, should unexpectedly happen. At about the third floor level, they can feel secure that nothing has happened yet, anyway."
Perhaps all that gold will be lost (destroyed?) on impact? That's probably just wishful thinking.
It would be right outside a large investment bank. I suspect there would be an ample supply of individuals to loot the dead body.
GYSC,
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year!
May we all find this new decade to be far more prosperous than the last.
I'd settle for a believable illusion of prosperity at this point. Let's set the bar low! ;)