Click to enlarge.
I do not think we will ever return to the median trend line. That said, it does take more oil for people to commute to work. If employment picks up, it is technically possible I suppose.
Click to enlarge.
Perhaps Bernanke's printing press can create full employment while simultaneously driving up the price of oil? Wouldn't that be a miracle!
That brings us to the tribute. I do not think China will ever consume 2 barrels of oil per capita per month. Ever! That can mean only one thing. America! We won!
Warning: The following video contains some profanity but profanity (and gallows humor) is just what this tribute deserves.
Source Data:
EIA: US Crude Oil Supplied
St. Louis Fed: Population
St. Louis Fed: Civilian Employment
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
Note how the consumption per capita and consumption per employed has been falling lately.
ReplyDeleteThat's probably not a good sign if 2007 is any indicator.
...or 2001 is any indicator
ReplyDelete...or 1990 is any incicator
...or 1981 is any indicator
Note the falloff in oil demand in the charts of this post and compare them to the business cycle contractions found in the following link.
NBER: US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
Mark, this also reminded me of a post that I read from one of your sidebar Blog List:
ReplyDelete"No Vehicles Please. We're Echo Boomers."
http://tinyurl.com/3tqcy3v
From what I have observed this seems to be on the money.
The kids I see nowadays don't seem to be ate up with the car bug like my generation was.
They seem content to play with their electronics for the most part and when/if they do buy a car it's usually a high gas mileage econobox.
So you may be right, we may not make it back up to that line, especially if our future generations don't see the automobile as their ticket to freedom and the open road like my generation and the ones before did.
I do not think China will ever consume 2 barrels of oil per capita per month. Ever!
ReplyDelete1.3B people x 2bpm = ~88Mbpd
That's every barrel in the world and then some.
Yeah, really going out on a limb there. ;-)
watchtower,
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have observed this seems to be on the money. The kids I see nowadays don't seem to be ate up with the car bug like my generation was.
They seem content to play with their electronics for the most part...
I was caught up in it once but...
My 1996 Camry has just 82,000 miles on it. That's just 5,500 miles per year. My current pace is roughly 2,000 miles per year.
I'm always looking for ways to drive less in real life. Virtual reality works for me and it will work better and better as we head into the future no doubt. Go figure.
Of course, this has huge implications for our country's many strip malls and restaurants (assuming the kids of today stay home as much as I do).
tj and the bear,
ReplyDeleteYeah, really going out on a limb there. ;-)
I try, lol.
That said, some experts seem to think a billion Chinese will share our middle class American lifestyle and love affair with the automobile. They go way out on the limb if basic math is factored in.
Wow, 2 barrels a person? I never knew.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, decade ago at sub $20/barrel who would notice it? Most folks be spending that much on hookers and booze anyway. At $100/barrel, well that's cuttin' into rent money for a lot of people.
AllanF,
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that those 2 barrels are consumed by our country as a whole. I'm simply dividing the total amount used by the number of people (and/or employed).
Each delivery truck sending you a package from Amazon.com uses some oil on your behalf. Each delivery sent to restock shelves at your local grocery store uses some oil on your behalf. Each...
You get the idea. It all adds up.
And yeah, $200 per month is a decent chunk of rent money. ;)
The video in your post made me think of this song by David Bowie:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEypM_BRe5Y
mab,
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid I can't help it.
I hear that.