Click to enlarge.
The chart shows the average annual growth rate since the last peak (for contractions) or last trough (for expansions).
BLS: Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition: Retail Salespersons
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as average.
Based on the downward trends in this chart, is it any wonder that I am bearish?
Despite the growing popularity of electronic commerce, the impact of online shopping on the employment of retail salespersons is expected to be minimal. Internet sales have not decreased the need for retail salespersons.
And if you believe that then please consider investing in this wonderful opportunity. You simply can't lose!
This post inspired by Audrey from the comments of the previous post.
See Also:
Retail Trade Employment
Retail Trade
Automation and Inequality
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Retail Trade
NBER: US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
Perhaps it's short-sighted, but internet sales have only been a factor for the last few years so I'd expect a downturn from these trend lines.
ReplyDeletePicosec,
ReplyDeleteActually, it has been going on a bit longer.
Check out the chart of monthly nonstore retail sales per capita as seen in this post.
That said, since it is an exponentially increasing trend your point is well taken. If the level of carnage is increasing exponentially then one would expect the trend lines in my chart to buckle.
It wouldn't require buckling though. Simply dipping below 0% growth and staying there would be sufficient. Sigh.
One more thought.
ReplyDeleteWe were below the blue trend line during both of the last 2 expansions and were below the red trend line in the last contraction.
This would definitely support your claim.
I don't think you can compare now to any time in the past.
ReplyDeleteThe CMDEBT party paid for a lot of stuff . . .
Graph: Household Sector: Liabilites: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)/Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP)
nb: I found my doomstead!
I didn't even know there were islands there. The history of these islands is kinda interesting -- they were awarded to the US by the Kaiser, actually.
lol on the spamstopper: sesselli -- I'd be pretty sessile in the San Juans!
Troy,
ReplyDeleteI don't think you can compare now to any time in the past.
Party pooper!
I should probably combine all the long-term bearish charts into a complex economic doomsday model, lol. Sigh.
I am VERY impressed by your doomstead.
Your doomstead inspired me to go looking for my own. Here it is. So what's the attraction? I could move my doomstead to YOUR doomstead. Mwuhahaha! ;)
Thanks Mark - fascinating chart as usual.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone from the BLS live in America? Have they not been in a supermarket or big box with self check-out? Tried to find retail help and ended up asking other customers until somebody fessed up that they actually worked there?
ReplyDeleteScanned aisle after aisle until they found a delivery person who might know something? Don't know anyone who shops online to avoid local sales taxes? Notice the empty retail in strip malls?
Reminds me of old George Bush shocked by supermarket scanners 20 years ago. Clueless.
Just to calibrate the current impact of the internet on retail sales, in 2009 about 4% of all retail sales were via the internet. As you noted, this has been growing exponentially.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.census.gov/econ/estats/2009/2009reportfinal.pdf
There are some retail categories that aren't likely to "ever" be subject to internet sales (most food items) but there is still a long way to grow.
I'd actually expect a backlash/reversion at some point as the public recognizes what they're losing when local retailers start disappearing.
I made a chart of the twin stimulus of the past decade:
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/s0CHX.png
yellow was consumer debt, red was tax cuts, green is the increase in deficit spending post-2009.
fried,
ReplyDeleteI'm going to guess that your questions are rhetorical, but there's a part of me that really wants to answer them! ;)
Picosec,
ReplyDeleteThere are some retail categories that aren't likely to "ever" be subject to internet sales (most food items) but there is still a long way to grow.
The employee efficient Costco and Sam's Club will continue to put a dent in food sale employees and will more than likely continue to grow faster than Kroger.
For what it is worth, Costco has nearly the same large revenue per employee that Amazon.com has.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteInteresting chart.
Here's a hard link to it.
Mark,
ReplyDeletethey were rhetorical, but they express my frustration with optimism from the BLS re retail employment.
I live on the West Side of Manhattan, which is nominally holding up compared to the rest of the country, and yet Broadway in the West 80s-is dotted with empty retail. At big box stores, self-checkout continues to
eliminate jobs. And in NYC, with fewer car owners than anywhere, online retail for everything, including groceries, is a way of life. And avoiding sales taxes via internet buying...enough said.
fried,
ReplyDeleteThey express my frustratioin with optimism from the BLS re retail employment too. No doubt about it.