I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
The last time we hit 5% NFP growth was around 1980 coming out the double dip. The from 2001 recession, we kissed the median line then plunged again. Maybe we can make it back to the median line before the next recession, but it is looking iffy.
As a side note, this would probably require caulking robots to seal up all those doors and windows (so the self-cleaning cycle didn't leak any liquids in an environmentally unsafe manner).
The surge in "not in workforce" must be driven at least partially by the shift of baby boom generation into the 60+ age bracket. People that lose their jobs at 60 or older are basically finished as members of the workforce. Separately re size of labor force you've got to take into account those that pass away. Death rates increase rapidly at 60 and older. Folks are leaving the workforce for the cemetery.
For what it is worth, I would also add that the surge in "not in workforce" could be driven at least partly by people like me. I wanted to retire early and it was a long-term goal started in high school (1978-1982).
The economy's ability to fulfill those dreams was much, much higher in the 1980s and 1990s than it was in the 2000s. I strongly suspect that the 2010s aren't going to be an improvement over the 2000s either. Sigh.
Meanwhile, pension funds still expect great things to be flying out of monkey a$$e$. Go figure.
The last time we hit 5% NFP growth was around 1980 coming out the double dip. The from 2001 recession, we kissed the median line then plunged again. Maybe we can make it back to the median line before the next recession, but it is looking iffy.
ReplyDeleteGreat charts!
Check out the chart over at Mish's. He has a chart showing population growth vs. workforce vs. employed vs. not in workforce. Interesting!
ReplyDeleteFire the janitors, let the kids clean the schools.
ReplyDeleteMr Slippery,
ReplyDeleteCall me a pessimist but...
The last time we hit -5% growth was around 1950. We then shot up to +10% growth!
This time we hit -5% growth and as you say...
Maybe we can make it back to the median line before the next recession, but it is looking iffy.
My thoughts exactly.
Fritz_O,
ReplyDeleteFire the janitors, let the kids clean the schools.
Although unemployment among kids is VERY high right now, let's try something else instead.
Self-Cleaning Automatic Public Schools!
As a side note, this would probably require caulking robots to seal up all those doors and windows (so the self-cleaning cycle didn't leak any liquids in an environmentally unsafe manner).
ReplyDeleteThe surge in "not in workforce" must be driven at least partially by the shift of baby boom generation into the 60+ age bracket. People that lose their jobs at 60 or older are basically finished as members of the workforce.
ReplyDeleteSeparately re size of labor force you've got to take into account those that pass away. Death rates increase rapidly at 60 and older. Folks are leaving the workforce for the cemetery.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteFor what it is worth, I would also add that the surge in "not in workforce" could be driven at least partly by people like me. I wanted to retire early and it was a long-term goal started in high school (1978-1982).
The economy's ability to fulfill those dreams was much, much higher in the 1980s and 1990s than it was in the 2000s. I strongly suspect that the 2010s aren't going to be an improvement over the 2000s either. Sigh.
Meanwhile, pension funds still expect great things to be flying out of monkey a$$e$. Go figure.