Click to enlarge.
The chart above compares Japan's real GDP growth to ours.
Click to enlarge.
December 16, 2008
ZIRP!
That’s zero interest rate policy. And it has arrived. America has turned Japanese.
And it is still with us more than three years later.
January 26, 2012
Bernanke: Interest Rate Hike in 2014 'Best Guess'
WASHINGTON (AP) – The Federal Reserve's announcement that it is unlikely to raise its benchmark interest rate until late 2014 is simply its "best guess," Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.
That would make it an additional three years for a grand total of six years. Of course Ben "There Is No Housing Bubble to Go Bust" Bernanke isn't well known for his accurate guesses. I would therefore be tempted to favor Murphy's Laws over his best guesses.
Every task takes twice as long as you think it will take. If you double the time you think it will take, it will take four times as long.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Federal Funds Rate
No "Turning Japanese" by The Vapors? Awww...
ReplyDelete"Of course Ben "There Is No Housing Bubble to Go Bust" Bernanke isn't well known for his accurate guesses."
ReplyDeleteAnd let's not forget Hank "subprime is contained" Paulson.
My Newfound Respect for Hank Paulson
90% of the time I'm on board with Ritholtz. This is one time I've jumped ship. The comments section is worth the time...
From your "Murphy's" link:
ReplyDelete"Basically, the idea behind Brodinger's Dog is that when a poodle takes a dump, the resulting doodie isn't really here, there, or anywhere in particular. It's in a quantum-mechanical superposition of locations, smeared out exponentially over a 10-foot or so radius-- until, that is, an observer steps into the general vicinity. Then, and only then, does it decide where it really is. As it turns out, unfortunately, 97.4% of the time it decides it's right under the observer's foot."
Speaking of dogs, there is this post tonight which claims to have come across ...the coolest dog in blogosphere....
Now, I'm not suggesting that Bondad's dog "Weimar" is not the coolest dog in blogosphere. I'm merely suggesting that, in fact, there may be another dog elsewhere in blogosphere who may claim that title. And furthermore, that it may be entirely possible that Stagflationary Mark's dog "Honey" could, in fact, be that dog. But I'm open to the fact that more research may be needed to determine exactly who can claim the title to "coolest dog in blogosphere".
After all, taking pictures of puppy's in a leisurely state isn't exactly a new phenomenon.
Another interesting point I noticed in the link above was the addressing of the broken employment trend line. Notice the chart titled "Total Nonfarm Employees" and the unique treatment Mish applies. He poses the question "Deos Demographics Alone Explain this Gap?".
It's another look at what you've been pointing out on this blog for quite some time now.
Fritz O,
ReplyDeleteI'll vote for Betty Cracker's dog, in this PSA: http://www.rumproast.com/images/uploads/dog_luggage_thumb.jpg
Mark,
ReplyDeleteslightly off-topic but interesting...the SEC is finishing new rules that would control withdrawals from money-market accounts in the US...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-close-to-new-money-market-rules-wsj-2012-02-07
I haz a chart . . .
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4RG
blue is systemic household debt leverage, red is fed rate.
looking at the top chart comparing Japan GDP growth with us, it was the 1990 dip in our GDP that pushed me to Japan.
ReplyDeleteI didn't do any research and didn't have the first clue that Japan had been cruising for a bruising in the late 1980s.
Then the 1990s growth got me to come back to the states in 2000.
Whoops!
I am Toroi, Destroyer of Entire Economies.
Actually, the months I was FOB (2H92) the N225 was rattling around 17000, having finished the 5 of 5 from 39000.
The day I left (May 2000) it was 17000, but beginning a 1 of 5 that would leave it at 8000 by 2003.
Then our funny money began flowing back to them and they got back up to 18000 by 2H07.
Back to 9000 now, in a declining channel dating back to 1Q10.
From last time:-
ReplyDeleteTen cents a dance
that’s what they pay me,
gosh, how they weigh me down!
Ten cents a dance
pansies and rough guys,
tough guys who tear my gown!
Seven to midnight I hear drums.
Loudly the saxophone blows.
Trumpets are tearing my eardrums.
Customers crush my toes.
Sometime I think
I’ve found my hero,
but it’s a queer romance.
All that you need is a ticket,
Come on, big boy, ten cents a dance.
Fighters and sailors and bowlegged tailors
can pay for their ticket and rent me!
Butchers and barbers and rats from the harbors
are sweethearts my good luck has sent me.
Though I’ve a chorus of elderly beaux,
stockings are porous with holes at the toes.
I’m here till closing time,
Dance and be merry, it’s only a dime.
Sometime I think
I’ve found my hero,
But it’s a queer romance.
All that you need is a ticket.
Come on, big boy, ten cents a dance
SurvivalAndProsperity,
ReplyDeleteI'm turning Japenese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so. Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so. I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so. Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so.
It's a bit blunt, don't you think?
The Army is a broadsword, not a scalpel. Trust me, senator, you do not want the Army in an American city. - General William Devereaux, The Siege (1998)
Not without a Patriot Act I wouldn't! ;)
Fritz_O,
ReplyDeleteAnd then there is Alan "The Age of Turbulence" Greenspan. He should know! He got us here. ;)
As for dogs, my dog loses the cutest dog award this month.
ReplyDeleteFirst she pulled out her stitches.
Then she pulled out her staples.
Now she's glued together with a cone on her head.
One word: Frankenhoney
fried,
ReplyDeleteYour link...
SEC close to new money market rules: WSJ
...firm up the $2.7 trillion money-market-fund industry in its effort to avoid losses from any future financial panics...put some restrictions on investors who wish to withdraw all their money at one time...
And now for the sarcasm.
1. Nothing stops a panic quite like restricting access to one's own money.
2. What future panic might that be? I thought the Fed had guaranteed a strong healthy economy well into the distant future with ZIRP.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteBased on your chart, I'd say that it s Limerick Tuesday! ;)
There once was a debt in Nantucket.
Based mostly on leveraged deposits.
The Fed's rate was subprime.
As we wined and we dined.
But wages would not grow to support it.
Ack! Too many syllables in that last line. I offer a replacement.
ReplyDeleteBut wages weren't there to support it.
dearieme,
ReplyDelete10 cents for a dance?
I can't even get a a penny for my thoughts.
Behold the power of inflation and free blogging. ;)
"The Army is a broadsword, not a scalpel. Trust me, senator, you do not want the Army in an American city. - General William Devereaux, The Siege (1998)" For me, best line of the whole movie.
ReplyDelete