March 14, 2012
This market is headed higher
In summary, SPX prices are headed higher it seems. Yes, there are some problems being presented by potentially negative signals from breadth or put-call ratios, but the fact is that traders seem to have an insatiable demand for protection in the form of VIX derivatives. This is one of those markets where price is really the only indicator you need: as long as the SPX chart continues to rise and continues to hold at important support areas (such as 1,340 and 1,360), you can ignore the other indicators.
It's the tried and tested market is heading higher because the market was heading higher theory. Can't lose. Always works.
There's an old saying in Tennessee. I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee.
Fool me from 1998 to 2000, shame on you.
Fool me from 2005 to 2007, shame on me.
Fool me from 2012 to 2014, you can't get fooled again.
I guess we all better hope that the prosperity is permanent this time.
I think this crazy train has plenty of track left.
ReplyDeletethe question comes from where the wall -- the discontinuity -- is going to appear.
I haven't really thought all that much about how the current status quo will end, whether in fire or ice.
Is $1.2T/yr deficit spending sustainable?
What's going to happen when we need to actually draw down the $2.6T SSTF? I suspect we're just going to print that money as we need it, instead of raising taxes or borrowing even more on top of the structural deficit.
Is Medicare really going to eat us alive by 2020? Beneficiaries grew by 1/6th 2000-2010 and that rate will double to +1/3rd this decade. Are we going to raise Medicare premiums from 3 to 5% to pay for this???
Are we ever going to cut defense spending? Here in Fresno the DOD is making noises about shuttering the 144th FW, which defends California from UFOs or somebody. Everybody is all you can't do that, we NEED those jobs! BRAC in the 1990s was a minor deal compared to the hundreds of billions we need to cut now. Probably not going to happen as long as the train is still rolling.
If the choice is betwen fire (inflation) and ice (deflation), the PtB will choose fire, I guess. $10 gas won't be so bad with a $20 minimum wage.
"That wing brings over a $100 million to the local economy. Salaries, contracts, to the fuel we buy the food the airmen eat, it's very vital for the economy not just Fresno but all of California." -- Major General David Baldwin
ReplyDeleteIn Soviet America, Wing eats YOU!
Hmm, for $100M/yr we could pay ~3000 people $3000/mo to play xbox all day. And burn a lot less oil, too.
Saw 3 of the birds go up last Monday, though -- prety site. I'm probably the only one in the city that notices them, other than the War Nerd, if he is really in Fresno.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteI think Pat Benatar has all your answers.
Fire and Ice
It's not so pretty when it fades away
Cause it's just an illusion...
Speaking of things fading away...
ReplyDeleteIn early Feb. my cable co. (CONcast) did the ole' switcharoo with our service and, low and behold, we now have (drumroll please) Bloomberg Television!
You can guess what that means for me. CNBC just faded off into the Wall Street patronizing sunset!
I haven't tuned into CNBC for over a month. It's been truly wonderful. No Cramer's face. No Cramer's awful voice. No biased, pro-Wall-Street reporting.
Now, Bloomberg isn't all brownies and ice cream. They have some of CNBC's former anchors, and they have their share of biased guests, but there really is no way I'd ever watch CNBC now that I have Bloomberg.
I really don't even miss Santelli. Not since the Obama eCONomy has turned all piggly-lipsticky on us.
Fritz_O,
ReplyDeleteI usually toggle between the two but I have to say that it does have its risks. I sometimes flip to CNBC and, well, ...
There's only one thing worse than getting Mad Money'd. That's getting Mad Money'd when Cramer has that preachy condescending tone as he explains to us exactly what is going on in a way our pea brains can apparently understand, lol.
It just makes me want to scream Winners of the New World at the top of my lungs. Seriously.
I have toggle off.
ReplyDeleteYears ago CONcast would cast BTV on the E! Network channel from 5:00am to 8:00am. I'd say from about '04 to '08. Then, just as things were heating up (the fin. crisis) CONcast pulled BTV off of E! all together.
(I know this sounds strange but, they really did show BTV on the entertainment channel in the early mornings. I couldn't figure WTF E! viewers would be doing up at 5:00am. BTV isn't exactly an infomercial. Go figure.)
I don't know if you remember Margeret Brennen from CNBC, (I think she used to stand in front of the NASDAQ board and call quotes), but now she has her own hour on BTV. And she's terrible. She was interviewing Dick Bove this morning (I dislike him alot) and she had a great chance to put his feet to the fire on his take of the health of the big banks (Citi et. al) and she moused out. Let him get away with telling me that the banks have bulked up their balance sheets without noting that it's been done in large part because of loaning at record low rates and not having to pay interest to depositors.
I really like the 5:00pm show, "Taking Stock". The guests are level-headed for the most part. Not too bullish, not too bearish.
Fritz_O,
ReplyDeleteRemember Louis Rukeyser?
I suddenly feel very old. I had flashbacks and the theme song played in my head, lol.
I bring it up because Margaret Brennan apparently began her career as a producer for him.
"Remember Louis Rukeyser?"
ReplyDeleteThe moment I read this I went straight to my file cabinets and dug through some old videos. Sure enough, I found what I was looking for.
I recorded the Sept. 05, 2003 airing of "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street". Peter Lynch was one of the guests that night. The show aired right after Kudlow & Cramer which I also recorded. Right after LRWS was a CNBC special on the Worldcom collapse which I also recorded (I think that's what I was after in the first place.)
Anyway, the K&C show was epic. During the show Cramer did his usual thing asking the guests to provide viewers with stock recommendations. One of the gentlemen on that night refused to provide a "stock tip". Cramer pushed him and finally he offered Berkshire Hathaway as a recommended investment going forward. What followed was incredible.
Cramer chided the guy right on air for not providing more consise stock picks. Cramer actually apologized on air to his viewers for his guests lack of cooperation.
What's funny is that in hindsight, the guests BH recommendation turned out to be an excellent return over the next several years. No reason to criticize. But that sure didn't stop Cramer. What a putz.
I've made sure to hold on to that video. Now that you've jogged my memory I'm going to watch it again. I still remember the part where Tyler Mathison (sic) walks down the street with Bernie Ebbers and BE swears his innocence. lol!
Fritz_O,
ReplyDeleteCramer chided the guy right on air for not providing more consise stock picks. Cramer actually apologized on air to his viewers for his guests lack of cooperation.
What's funny is that in hindsight, the guests BH recommendation turned out to be an excellent return over the next several years. No reason to criticize. But that sure didn't stop Cramer. What a putz.
You had a Deja Fool moment too? Small [winners of the new] world! ;)