Click to enlarge.
Behold the anti-mass exodus into nominal treasuries! (New 1.7% low hit yesterday.)
Click to enlarge.
Gaze in wonder at the panic into inflation protected treasuries! (New -0.39% low hit today.)
Click to enlarge.
Gasp in amazement at the violently unchanging inflation expectations! (Inflation expectations locked at Fed's new public target of 2%.)
Click to enlarge.
Tremble in fear at the lack of uncertainty! (The Fed has the yellow dot pretty much right where it wants it.)
Click to enlarge.
Stampede in confusion at the new normal's implications! (And/or quietly capitulate.)
See Also:
Bondmageddon Is Here!
2012's Bondmageddon
Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve
this newsletter was posted at hcn just now. . .
ReplyDeletecoulda written every word, except I'm not particularly bearish on China I guess.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteI think we're pretty much seeing the same thing.
There is one exception though. I am particularly bearish on China (and therefore agree with Jim Chanos).
That said, if we agreed on everything then one of us would be redundant. ;)
Being a good physiocrat, I just like countries that can feed themselves.
ReplyDeleteChina was just such a tough place in living memory that I don't feel comfortable expounding on its prospects going forward.
These people went through hell 1900-1975.
A housing bubble fallout is peanuts compared to all that.
Demographically, their family planning policy is going to put them in a much better situation compared to India (google graph).
They're coming from such a low place that I don't really see any headwinds in their future.
But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteBut the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.
If not for their growing income inequality and ongoing corruption, I would not be as bearish.
Many Chinese people believe the allegations against Bo reflect widespread problems of officials and their families mixing power and profit - using political privilege to accumulate wealth far beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.
Those same things contribute to my bearishness here too of course.