I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
16-24 year old employed workers make up just 5.6% of our population right now. Why?
1. Demographics 2. Horrible Economy 3. College Glut?
We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.
We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.
Exactly. But it's not just starter homes. What about all the boomers that will be looking to downsize?
Over-charging society for a college education might even be dumber than over-charging society for housing. There's no end to the stupid! Heck we reward stupid and fraud. And all the tomfoolery can be traced to the abusive use of credit.
The Greenanke Feds need to be held to account for not following their actual mandate which is to regulate credit aggregates. The dual mandate is a giant LIE that won't die.
The top chart fits my thesis perfectly -- that the 1970s inflation event was driven by the babyboom bumrush into the workforce.
I actually have a spreadsheet here with the annual births going back to 1900. It doesn't have actual immigration alas, but I do think the better numbers you have the more hotoke nature you can get.
The number of native-born 20-35 yos as percent of CNP16OV started at 33% in the mid 1960s and peaked at 37% in 1982.
Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.
Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.
And if we can't create many more jobs due to heavy debt loads, ongoing automation, and outsourcing, your second thesis will come into play (more mouths to feed). Sigh.
I accidentally had the scales reversed on the 2nd chart. Sorry about that. It's been fixed.
ReplyDeleteI realized there was a problem when I saw that the March 2012 data point on my chart showed 5.6% 10-year treasury yields.
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."
Heck, we're not even in the same solar system!
Bonus thought.
ReplyDeleteDavid Faber of CNBC said recently that bonds are dangerous. He said it could not be repeated enough. Everyone just sort of nodded in agreement.
Is that how bubbles are supposed to work? Everyone scared to death of owning the asset in question?
He didn't say what might happen to stocks if 10-year interest rates tripled from 2% to 6%. I wonder why.
As a side note, I'm willing to predict November's I-Bond fixed rate right now.
0.0%
I'll be shocked if we make it to 0.1%. Seriously.
16-24 year old employed workers make up just 5.6% of our population right now. Why?
ReplyDelete1. Demographics
2. Horrible Economy
3. College Glut?
We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.
We better hope that this group finds prosperity and not just extreme college debt, or housing is going to have serious ongoing "starter home" problems. Sigh.
ReplyDeleteExactly. But it's not just starter homes. What about all the boomers that will be looking to downsize?
Over-charging society for a college education might even be dumber than over-charging society for housing. There's no end to the stupid! Heck we reward stupid and fraud. And all the tomfoolery can be traced to the abusive use of credit.
The Greenanke Feds need to be held to account for not following their actual mandate which is to regulate credit aggregates. The dual mandate is a giant LIE that won't die.
The Greenanke Feds need to be held to account <<
ReplyDeleteBring back public hangings??? :)
The top chart fits my thesis perfectly -- that the 1970s inflation event was driven by the babyboom bumrush into the workforce.
ReplyDeleteI actually have a spreadsheet here with the annual births going back to 1900. It doesn't have actual immigration alas, but I do think the better numbers you have the more hotoke nature you can get.
The number of native-born 20-35 yos as percent of CNP16OV started at 33% in the mid 1960s and peaked at 37% in 1982.
Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.
mab,
ReplyDeleteBut it's not just starter homes. What about all the boomers that will be looking to downsize?
For just 50 cents more I can supersize your order.
Gallows humor.
Troy,
ReplyDeleteThe top chart fits my thesis perfectly...
It does!
Since 1983 it has declined to 24% but is beginning to reverse now as the baby boom echo replaces Gen X in this category.
And if we can't create many more jobs due to heavy debt loads, ongoing automation, and outsourcing, your second thesis will come into play (more mouths to feed). Sigh.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteBring back public hangings??? :)
Based on the stock market performance since 2000, would you settle for publicly traded hangings? D'oh! ;)