Initial Claims Danger

Click to enlarge.

On the one hand, the local low of 392,000 reached on February 26, 2011 was not the ultimate low. The next few months would have made it feel that way though. Perhaps there are seasonal effects in play?

On the other hand, I became a permabear in 2004. It's not hard for me to imagine that the 361,000 initial claims reached on February 11, 2012 was the ultimate low in this cycle.

And on that third hand, I may need to move forward my October 2014 recession prediction a year if the trend in blue continues.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims