Record High Optimism (Musical Tribute)

Optimism is definitely hard to quantify. Here's one way.


Click to enlarge.

When I became permabearish in 2004, I started eating out a lot less. That remains the case and will be the case well into the distant future. I think it would be a fair assessment to say that I am not optimistic.

And yet, as seen in the chart, here we are.

On the one hand, we have 8.2% unemployment and have experienced one of the worst decades in American history.

On the other hand, we've had a good year or two thanks to massive unsustainable stimulus. If we extrapolate those years into the distant future then it can mean only one thing. We're invincible!



Source Data:
U.S. Census: Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report