Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.
I know this is going to come as a big shocker (unless one glances at the red line in the chart above), but last week's initial claims were revised up by 3,000. It mark's the 65th straight upward revision to the previous week's data.
Talk about being consistent!
See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.15
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims
I have a suggestion to scatter plot % change y/y in Initial claims vs $ change y/y in S&P. Below is the data from FRED on the Fed site. It looks quite good over the last 10 years but I haven't ran an Rsquared. Note I take the negative or opposite sign of initial claims to better show the correlation (i.e. that is negative layoffs means better stock prices). I'm sure your busy so no problem if you can't get around to it.
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=SP500,IC4WSA&scale=Left,Left&range=10yrs,10yrs&cosd=2002-09-25,2002-09-15&coed=2012-09-25,2012-09-15&line_color=%230000ff,%23ff0000&link_values=false,false&line_style=Solid,Solid&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&lw=1,1&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=a,-a&fq=Daily,Weekly%2C+Ending+Saturday&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&transformation=pc1,pc1&vintage_date=2012-09-26,2012-09-26&revision_date=2012-09-26,2012-09-26
Mark, busy? bwahahahaha. ;^)
ReplyDeletejeff,
ReplyDeleteWill do!
For future reference, there's a "link" link at the top of the St. Louis Fed charts that makes it easier to share them with others. It gives you two choices. One is a link to the chart itself and the other is a link to the web page with all the information included.
AllanF,
ReplyDeleteHey! I've been known to be busy! Borderlands 2 just came out, lol. ;)
jeff,
ReplyDeleteDone! :)