Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Where Is the Recovery?

Yesterday I posted the following chart.

Happy Construction Labor Day

Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows the growth in construction employees per capita during economic expansions (i.e., the difference between the current construction employees per capita and the construction employees per capita at the end of the previous recession).


Click to enlarge.

In sharp contrast to previous expansions, this construction recovery is AWOL.

In military terminology, desertion is the abandonment of a "duty" or post without permission and is done with the intention of not returning.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Construction Employees per Capita
NBER: US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

10 comments:

  1. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=abG

    "The candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long, and you burned very, very brightly, Roy"

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  2. Troy,

    "They're just questions, Leon. In answer to your query, they're written down for me. It's a test, designed to provoke an emotional response... Shall we continue?"

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  3. Where Is the Recovery?

    I'll give you a hint, it's not on Main Street........

    If you're on Wall Street you get a bailout. If you're totally tapped out you get a handout. If you're in the middle, it's getting harder and harder to get by.

    All the result of growing debts faster than output. There out to be a law.....oh wait, there is.

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  4. That construction employees per capita is quite instructive. The rising peaks of course reflect the greater amount of money and credit devoted to RE investment, fueled by lax monetary policy and regulation. It's remarkable how consistent the low points are.

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  5. mab,

    The dogs of the Dow ate my home "work"!

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  6. Scott,

    It's remarkable how consistent the low points are.

    No matter how high each individual hot air balloon goes, they all eventually land on the ground?

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  7. Oh by the way, which one's Pink?
    And did we tell you the name of the game, boy
    We call it Riding the Gravy Train (middle class).

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  8. mab,

    Have you seen the chart?
    It's a helluva start.

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  9. Mark, looking at your chart, we've "recovered" to normal construction employment. Makes more sense to call the base rate "normal" than to call the peaks "normal".

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  10. Who Struck John,

    The "new normal" is just the "old normal" plus the "fake prosperity" minus the "fake prosperity"?

    I don't know. That sounds fairly complicated, lol. Sigh. ;)

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