The Cherry Picking Balls Award for 2012

Some people just don't know when to give up. First he picked on my beloved potatoes and now he's going after my beloved chicken. It's getting personal! Hahaha!

October 26, 2012
This Week's Potato News

I'm pointing this out for those who still think that the typical American consumer is paying $1.30 to buy a pound of potatoes and that potato prices are up 306% since 2008.

The professor no longer claims that potato prices are up 306% since 2008. We've made some progress on that front, lol. Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

However, he still claims the following.

But what HAVE seen is that food and gasoline prices have skyrocketed since December 2008, particularly relative to the Consumer Price Index less food & energy.

He's decided to go after meats, poultry, fish, and eggs prices. Did he stick with the December 2008 cherry picked starting date from his original post? No. That date no longer worked for his new charts. He's decided to cherry pick a whole new starting date instead. This time it is the middle of 2010. Want to know why the middle of 2010 is so important? I think it is fairly clear when you see the the complete chart going all the way back to December of 2008.


Click to enlarge.

Oh, look. He's conveniently ignored the deflationary food price data from early 2009 to early 2010. Ignoring that data allows him to make the following claim in the comments of his post as if it is gospel.

No potato data, but food still rose 3x faster than “inflation” and gasoline has grown incredibly.

Here is the data that we're both using. Here is a link to the chart above.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was 208.966 in December of 2008.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was 230.690 in September of 2012.

That's a 10.4% increase over 3.75 years. The average increase per year was therefore a relatively tame 2.7% (1.104^(1/3.75) = 1.027). It's a bit higher than overall inflation but hardly enough to claim that these foods have "skyrocketed" since December of 2008. The data clearly shows they did not.

I can say from personal experience that I have seen meat prices increase a bit faster than overall inflation over the years but it has been somewhat offset by extremely stable poultry prices. It's been a very long time since I've seen boneless skinless chicken prices rise at Costco. What can I say? I love chicken almost as much as I love potatoes. I tend to notice these things.

The professor better stick to foods that I don't love if he wishes to keep twisting the data undetected. Do NOT pick spaghetti. I can still get it for $1 per pound on sale. I suggest asparagus. I have virtually no knowledge on it! ;)

And lastly, there actually is potato data if the professor cares to look. It can be found within the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI database. I really don't think it supports his case though.

The consumer price index for potatoes was 353.564 in December of 2008.

The consumer price index for potatoes was 301.302 in September of 2012.

That's a 15% drop in price. This is in sharp contrast to the professor's original claim of a 306% price increase over the period. As I type this, Safeway is still offering 5 pounds of Russett potatoes for $1. No joke.

As I have previously stated, potato prices have generally risen faster than inflation overall. One exception is the very time period that the professor claims they skyrocketed. Go frickin' figure.

It could have been an honest mistake and one that could have been fixed, but this new shift to the middle of 2010 to support a claim going back to December of 2008 takes a serious amount of cherry picking balls. Kudos to you Professor Anthony B. Sanders of George Mason University. You definitely deserve a food-based award.