Sunday, November 18, 2012

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day (Musical Tribute)


Click to enlarge.

Mere words cannot do the trend line in blue justice.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Industrial Production: Durable Materials
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9 comments:

  1. Stagflationary MarkNovember 18, 2012 at 5:05 PM

    Note that the "sure thing" exponential trend in blue broke spectacularly even with an r-squared of 0.992.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rob DawgNovember 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

    Overlay inflation on top of a best fit sigmoid curve function.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stagflationary MarkNovember 18, 2012 at 10:21 PM

    Rob Dawg,

    It certainly has that look about it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Rob DawgNovember 18, 2012 at 10:32 PM

    Something about diminishing returns... I'll remember eventually.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Stagflationary MarkNovember 18, 2012 at 10:42 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Stagflationary MarkNovember 18, 2012 at 10:45 PM

    Rob Dawg,

    Diminishing returns you say.

    Inflation Adjusted S&P 500 Index (October 2012 Dollars)

    2nd attempt's the charm hopefully.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Stagflationary MarkNovember 18, 2012 at 10:46 PM

    (It does not include dividends.)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Rob DawgNovember 18, 2012 at 11:00 PM

    It does not include index component or weighting substitutions either. An important consideration for longer time series.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stagflationary MarkNovember 19, 2012 at 12:02 AM

    Rob Dawg,

    Welcome to the new century.

    Home of the "survivor ships"!

    Sigh.

    ReplyDelete