Click to enlarge.
For at least 16 years (1980 through 1995) one could very accurately predict what the 10-year average of real median home prices would be simply by knowing the 10-year average of total vehicle miles driven.
Welcome to the new era of wiggle.
Be patient with the song. Just like the chart (and the bridge), it really picks up in the 2nd half, lol.
Gallows humor. Sigh.
Update:
Click to enlarge.
This chart shows where we currently are (without the 10-year moving averages). The red dot is September 2012. We are well below the peak miles driven and the peak real median house price.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
As a side note...
ReplyDelete1. I'm not convinced vehicle miles traveled will increase much in the future.
2. I'm not convinced real house prices will either.
Put another way, I would not rule out that this chart could work in reverse. Oil? Employment?
I'm not convinced you're wrong. ;-)
ReplyDeleteTJandTheBear,
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced you're wrong to be unconvinced that I'm wrong, lol.
"Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! ;)
The first being never get involved in an oil war in the Middle East.
ReplyDeleteRob Dawg,
ReplyDeleteOil war? I thought we were there for humanitarian reasons.
Are you sure you are reading the same mainstream media articles that I'm reading?
(Too much sarcasm? I swear I'm going to hit my limit someday.)