The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.021

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It has not been a good month, but you could have probably guessed that from my posting activity. That said, I continue to climb at least 20 flights of stairs each and every day. It is definitely a permanent habit now. Today I climbed 100. What motivated me? The incredibly uplifting Alice in Chains of course, lol.

Dirt (Alice in Chains album)

The songs on the album focused on depression, anger, anti-social behavior, drug use, war, death, and other emotionally charged topics.

Oops! ;)

In all seriousness, that's a great album. Pretty dark though!


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The death of our pet cat near the end of January marks the turning point. I think it was a trigger for allowing winter's doldrums to take center stage. Let's just say summer can't get here fast enough.

On a lighter note, I'm roughly 7 pounds lighter than I was on February 28, 2012. This is pretty much in line with what I would have predicted at this time last year. The path to get here was not nearly so predictable.

I'm also seeing a pretty substantial improvement in my ability to play scales on the guitar. I played pretty much every day in February. Seeing improvement is a great motivator. It doesn't burn many calories though. Go figure.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

Let's start with a chart of corporate dividends divided by corporate profits.


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We almost made it to 100% during the great recession. Hurray!

Contrary to the general opinion of the financial media and so-called financial experts, is it any wonder why some companies might hoard some extra corporate cash in case it happens again?

Now let's look at the 10-year moving average to eliminate much of the short-term cyclical noise.


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Companies are no longer willing to exponentially grow their dividends relative to their corporate profits? I know. It's all very shocking! Congress must make companies pay more! Pass a law or something!

Perhaps I should summarize without the sarcasm. Stick a fork in it. The unsustainable exponential growth party's over. We may still grow some but in my opinion we will never grow like we once did. Not even close. There are just too many headwinds and at least some of the ponzi-style tailwinds aren't holding up all that well either (as seen in the charts above).

And lastly, my posting frequency has been greatly diminished lately. Sorry about that! I do not believe it is permanent. My latest obsession is learning to play the guitar. I played from 5:30am to 8:00am last night. I was just running scales. I'm definitely not a morning person and man, oh man, are my left hand's fingers sore. :)

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Brent-Up Demand

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February 13, 2013
Econbrowser: Prices of gasoline and crude oil

But an increase in production in Canada and the central U.S. combined with a decrease in U.S. consumption has led to a surplus of oil in the central U.S.

$100 oil, less consumption, and a surplus? Bernanke's a miracle worker! That's why we pay him the big bucks!

I appear to have opened the sarcasm gates yet again. Why stop now? The Onion wrote the following 12 years ago.

January 17, 2001
Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'

WASHINGTON, DC–Mere days from assuming the presidency and closing the door on eight years of Bill Clinton, president-elect George W. Bush assured the nation in a televised address Tuesday that "our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is finally over."

Mission accomplished!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Brent / WTI

Corporate Profits vs. Wages

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It's déjà vu all over again. - Yogi Berra

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Corporate Profits / Wages

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.35

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An optimist might tell you that this is the first inning of the recovery. We will return to the red trend line as the economy begins to strengthen. For what it is worth, I am not an optimist. I believe that the next major trend change in initial claims will be to the upside.

Please note that versions 32 through 34 of these posts are permanently missing. I took a break for a few weeks. Sorry about that! In my defense, not much has changed since I last posted.

Oh sure, there was a feigned attempt to revisit the red trend line in my absence. I guess there was that. Perhaps the red trend line attracted a few red herrings. Sigh.

It is also a literary device employed by writers that leads readers or characters towards a false conclusion, often used in mystery or detective fiction.

The job market sure is a mystery, a conundrum so to speak. It's almost like jobs are being automated and outsourced faster than we can think up new ones. Yeah, it's almost exactly like that. Go figure.

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.31 (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

Weekly Layoff Odds

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I have just one thing to say to those who believe that the Fed can keep us permanently below the long-term median.

Good luck on that theory.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims / Nonfarm Payrolls

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

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Does this mean that the new homes of the future won't all come with wall-to-wall granite flooring? Shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold

Real GDP vs. Aggregate Hours Worked

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The sustainability of real GDP growth from here is just one of those things that I do not trust. Go figure.

On the one hand, correlation does not prove causation.

On the other hand, I don't need proof to be distrustful. If I'm walking late at night and an unmarked van pulls up to me and everyone in the van is wearing ski masks, then I definitely better see some snow and some skis. Let's just put it that way. And truth be told, I'd still be distrustful.

And on that third hand, how many trillions more will/can we borrow to prop up real GDP?

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real GDP vs. Aggregate Hours Worked

Forcing Construction Jobs Back on Trend!

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I'll bet you $100 that we will never make it back to the blue trend line *and* that my name isn't Captain Awesome.

Easy money! That's two ways you can win! Any takers?

Before you place your bet, I should probably warn you that I don't live in Oregon. That might affect the odds of the surest way to make the $100, lol. Sigh.

Without gallows sarcasm all is lost.

See Also:
Happy Construction Labor Day

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Construction Employees per Capita

Treasury Billmageddon!

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Okay, there's some sensationalized sarcasm in this post's title and in the chart. I admit it. I never claimed to be a respectable economic journalist! Hey, I'm just a computer and physics guy with a sarcastic sense of humor. You get what you pay for on this free (deflationary) and mostly anonymous blog. ;)

In all seriousness, much to the dismay of typical economic pundits (think CNBC and/or Jeremy Siegel) it would seem hard to have a full-blown treasury bond rate explosion in the near-term if we can't even get the 3-month treasury bill to yield one-tenth of one-percent on a regular basis. Just a thought!

So what does this mean? I had no problem locking in a 3.53% yield for 20 years on EE Savings Bonds in January yet again. That's the yield one gets if one buys the bond today and holds 20 years (since they are guaranteed to double in value over the period).

2^(1/20) = 1.0353

The same may not be said for those who buy in May (when rates and possibly terms will next be changed). Should rates continue to remain this low on the short end of the curve, then eventually someone within government might decide that 25 years would be a more suitable time frame for EE Bonds to double in value. Just a hunch.

I can't say that 3.53% is an absolute bargain (hindsight may show that it wasn't), but it definitely beats the current 2.79% yield on the 20-year Treasury. In other words, long-term savers could certainly be doing worse.

I am a relative interest rate and inflation agnostic these days. I have virtually no opinion on what either will be doing 10 years from now. If I was forced to guess under penalty of death, I'd probably say more of the same. Put another way, I think the entire global economy is as @#$%ed over the next decade as it has been for the last decade. Call me a permabear.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
US Treasury: Yield Curve Rates

40.7 Million Missing Jobs (Musical Tribute)

Long-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Short-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Some are arguing that we're in the first inning of the recovery. If the above chart is any indicator, I'd say the game's about over.

Let's take it back to 1984 yet again.


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@#$%!

The next chart shows nonfarm payrolls per capita. Can there ever be too many ugly charts in one post?



On the off chance we're heading back to the 1960s, here's a musical tribute to go with it.



See Also:
41.1 Million Missing Jobs

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Payrolls per Capita

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.020

I continue to climb at least 20 flights of extra stairs each day.


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I thought I had a handle on winter's seasonal effects this year but the death of our pet cat on the 21st altered my mood to the downside. I tend to eat more when I'm feeling down. I think the turning point is fairly visible in the chart. It's not all bad. Tigger nearly made it to the age of 18. He also went fairly peacefully.

I'm not starting February off all that well. My weight is already back to 206. I walked 7 miles yesterday and also climbed 300 flights of stairs as a rare conscious attempt to compensate. I'm not sure it helped all that much though. My appetite picked up as well.


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This too shall pass. The long-term trend in blue is all that really matters to me. I have no reason to believe that it isn't sustainable. As of today, I'm right on trend (not seen in the chart). Those expecting me to get into the blue zone well ahead of schedule (perhaps myself included) might take comfort in the wisdom of the Man in Black.

Get used to disappointment.

In other news, I will be posting another missing jobs report soon. I may not be fully back from my break, but I feel somewhat obligated to share that bit of sarcastic joy. Oh yeah, I'm feeling winter's effects today. There's no denying it.

And lastly, in January I made my I-Bond and EE-Bond purchases. So ends my trading for the year.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000