Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Employment Cost Index vs. Holiday Sales Prediction (Musical Tribute)


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November 19, 2013
Exurban Nation: Dismal Xmas Season

U.S. consumers will spend 11 percent more this holiday season, starting with a jump in shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving, while looking for discounts in stores and online, according to a study by consulting firm Accenture Plc.

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Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Employment Cost Index: Total Compensation: All Civilian

11 comments:

  1. Thanks for thelink.

    Here's yet another factor working against 2013. This year there aren't a slew of tax increases on Jan 1st to pull demand forward.

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/20/nicolas-maduro-powers-venezuelan-economy

    Maduro says the special powers will enable him to regain control of the country's collapsing economy – which the president blames on "economic warfare" being waged by his opponents to destabilise his rule before December's municipal elections.

    Last week, Maduro ordered shops around the country to slash their prices by more than half and announced that as many as "100 parasitic bourgeois managers" would be imprisoned for usury.

    Critics of the government say ruling by decree will do little to fight corruption or solve the root problems behind the oil-rich nation's mounting inflation, but will underline Maduro's message that he will remain true to the political line of his mentor Hugo Chávez.

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    Imagine how stupid. Trying to fix an economy with laws. Oh, wait....

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  3. Gas has been dropping. Around Portland I think it's down 10% since mid Oct.

    Granted $700 equals about 200 gallons of gasoline, which is maybe 6 months of driving for the average person? But it might loosen up the purse strings a touch.

    I mean hey, it's not like people will be getting their new health ins. bills immediately. Those won't be due for another 5 or 6 weeks, right? And if you've decided to drop insurance completely, think of all the money you'll be saving. Remember all the product Apple was able to move back when people realized they didn't have to make their monthly mortgage nut anymore.

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  4. VMT is falling. Mileage is increasing. Substitutes are rampant.

    Want to make the US great again? Coal powered trucking. Make it a $10b prize and the ROI is still measured in months if not weeks.

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  5. Rob Dawg,

    Last week, Maduro ordered shops around the country to slash their prices by more than half...

    Meanwhile, we are urging shops around the country to raise prices by roughly 2% each year or there will be deflationary hell to pay! ;)

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  6. AllanF,

    Those won't be due for another 5 or 6 weeks, right?

    Short-term thinking got us into this financial mess and short-term thinking can get us out!

    So stop worrying so much about the long-term implications of what happens 5 to 6 weeks from now! Live in the Christmas presents! Be happy! ;)

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  7. Coal powered trucking? Meh. The Germans had that back before they bombed Pearl Harbor.

    I'm more interested in LFTR's.

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  8. AllanF,

    Still waiting on Mish's running a car on saltwater!

    I'm very patient. It's been more than 6 years so far, lol.

    Running a car on saltwater is pretty much like running a car on burnt wood (ash).

    Both water and ash are the waste products of burning and therefore both can effectively put out a fire.

    That doesn't stop me from being filled with hope and sarcasm though! ;)

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  9. You hadn't heard? Saltwater's been done. The trick to it is the ball bearings.

    ReplyDelete