Click to enlarge.
Last month? We have returned to the long-term trend line in blue. What more do you want?
I guess it was sort of a trick question. This chart shows how tiny small time deposits (under $100,000) are compared to how much debt the consumer has racked up (bottom scale). The ratio hit a new low in September and I don't really expect November to buck the trend. It also shows what that tiny ratio might mean to 10-year treasury yields (left scale).
Perhaps you are interested in large time deposits instead? Good luck finding a trend there. I'm not sure the one percent buy enough canned goods to matter (probably close to 1% at best). I'm also guessing that they don't generally rent tires. Just a hunch.
Deep sigh.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Subtract CPI-U and get a better trend.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/29/black-friday-is-a-bunch-of-meaningless-hype-in-one-chart-2/
ReplyDeleteInteresting chart pr0n.
Rubber bands don't stretch to infinity... OR IS IT... you can only hold a ball underwater so long.
ReplyDeleteToo many to choose from.
Rob Dawg,
ReplyDeleteI can't subtract the CPI to get a better trend.
The bottom scale is a ratio of small time deposits to consumer credit. The CPI doesn't apply.
If I subtract the CPI from the treasury yield on the left scale (to get something approaching a real yield estimate) then the chart falls apart. I could probably correct that, maybe, but we don't know what the CPI will do over the next 10 years (to adjust today's 10-year treasury).
Enjoyed your link about the meaninglessness of drawing conclusions about heavy Black Friday traffic. I tend to think the more desperate people are to get a good deal, the less money they tend to have. Can you picture Donald Trump waiting in line for hours to buy a television? I sure can't.
TJandTheBear,
ReplyDeleteI think...
1. The herd is almost never right.
2. CNBC constantly points out that interest rates are artificially low and can therefore only go up.
3. I could be dead and cremated long before that happens.
4. Rome did not fall in a day, and I doubt very much that we will either.
5. $7 trillion in savings deposits patiently waiting for better returns? Good luck on that theory!
Paying depositors a decent return would crush bank profits. Need I finish the thought?
ReplyDeleteRob Dawg,
ReplyDeletePerhaps we can convince banks to explain how I-Bonds work to their depositors? Oh, wait. Never mind. That too would crush bank profits.
Just so long as it doesn't interfere with international "Gold Settlement Day." You know, the one time a year when all the people who think they own physical gold and are aligned up with the metal deposits they hold simultaneously.
ReplyDeleteRob Dawg,
ReplyDeleteI hear you. Let's do it on intenational "Consumer Sentimental Day". That's the day that the Chinese consumers will look back with fondness at all those "Made in USA" products we kept shipping them. In God They Trust! How else could they create so many empty cities?
Would that come before or after stock options outstanding reconciliation day?
ReplyDeleteRob Dawg,
ReplyDeleteOh, man. That's its own day now? I thought it would be lumped into Derivatives Appreciation Month and/or Zero Sum Game Day.
Treasury Bill Euphoria Day has been cancelled due to lack of interest. Perhaps it could be done then?
Seems every day has become calculated derisking day recently.
ReplyDeleteYeah. For what it is worth, I took a calculated derisk staying home on Black Friday. I think it paid off. I didn't experience a heart attack fighting over cheap goods.
ReplyDelete